The claim
“28,000 police jobs could go”
Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO), leaked in The Guardian, March 7, 2011
Cathy Newman checks it out
Politicians love to taunt each other about police numbers, so ACPO’s claims about job losses were immediately seized on by the Opposition. In opposition, the Conservatives always used to delight in telling the last Labour Government that the thin blue line was getting thinner. Now the boot’s on the other foot, and under the Coalition, it’s predicted thousands of officers will go. Fact or fiction?
The background
Most police forces across England and Wales spend around 80 per cent on salaries – so speculation over how many jobs could be on the line has run rife since the Chancellor’s axe carved out police budget cuts of 20 per cent in October’s Spending Review.
£2.1bn must be saved over four years and ACPO now estimates that this will see job losses of 28,000 in the police force. That comprises 12,000 police officers – those with powers of arrest, from Bobbies on the beat to serious crime squad detectives – and 16,000 “civilians” – support staff, from back room penpushers to forensics investigators.
Previous estimates have ranged from the Police Federation’s 40,000 figure back in September, to last month’s prediction of 10,190 frontline job cuts over two years, from Shadow Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper. Ms Cooper’s research was based on the finalised budget plans of two-thirds of the 43 police forces in England and Wales.
With most police budgets now fixed, ACPO’s figures should be the most accurate yet. But are they on the money? FactCheck investigates.
The analysis
ACPO told FactCheck that the 28,000 number was really a “moveable feast”, and that in light of today’s Winsor Review of pay and conditions, it may need adjusting.
“There is no set figure on police cuts. Yes we predict that 28,000 jobs could go – but that is based on current information gathered from police forces. It’s a moveable feast and is still a matter for individual chief constables to decide,” an ACPO spokeswoman told FactCheck.
The Government might have hoped the Winsor Review, an independent review into police pay commissioned by the Home Secretary in October, would give it the answers. But it’s only found £485m of savings over three years – well short of the £2.1bn ministers have committed to.
A Police Federation spokesman told FactCheck that, based on the information out at the moment, they’d roughly agree with ACPO’s estimate. “I’d say 25,000 to 28,000 is the current estimate,” he said. “But that’s the tip of the iceberg.”
Between 5,000 and 7,000 police officers retire every year, he pointed out. So retirement alone could account for at least 15,000 police officers over three years, at most 21,000 – and that’s not including police “civvy” staff. This already outstrips the 12,000 job losses predicted by ACPO, which says its figures are based on the total number of jobs needed to go to meet the government’s cuts target.
By law, police officers can’t be sacked, and the Winsor Review doesn’t believe that should change. But there is now evidence of police forces issuing so-called A19 notices – exploiting a legal loophole and pushing out officers who’ve done their 30 years service and can legally be given the heave-ho. They’re the most experienced, and most expensive, officers. “In the last few months we’ve become aware of seven or eight forces serving ‘A19 notices’ on officers,” the Police Federation told FactCheck.
Policing Minister Nick Herbert wants the police to cut bureaucracy before slicing through the frontline. He said: “We have to deal with the deficit, and police forces can and must make savings, focusing on back and middle office functions like IT and procurement so that frontline services can be protected. But when three quarters of force budgets goes on pay, reform of pay and conditions is also essential to protect police jobs and keep officers on the streets.”
Cathy Newman’s verdict
Tom Winsor is nothing if not punctilious. A lawyer and former rail regulator with a forensic grasp of detail, if anyone could find a way to save money on the police, he could. The problem for the Government though, as it seeks to cut £2.1bn from the police budget, is that Winsor didn’t quite come up with the goods – identifying just £485m of savings from pay and conditions.
That means the government will have to preside over more job losses than it might have hoped. The thin blue line is therefore getting thinner, and the danger for the government is that it’s also getting angry. Will some police be persuaded to join the TUC’s day of action on March 26? Watch this space…
