The claim
“We don’t want more people employed in the bureaucracy, we want more staff out there where patients can see them. That’s why there are going to be more doctors and nurses, there are going to be more health visitors helping mothers with young children and above all there are going to be more people working in GP surgeries supporting local GPs. But are there going to be slightly fewer people in the bureaucracy? Yes, certainly.”

Michael Fallon, deputy chairman, interview with Channel 4 News, February 23, 2011

Cathy Newman checks it out
Michael Fallon is the Conservatives’ one man instant rebuttal unit. He was deployed today to dispute claims by the unions that more than 50,000 NHS jobs were at risk. He challenged the facts with his usual aplomb, claiming that although bureaucrats might get the push, ‘frontline’ staff – that is, doctors and nurses – were not only safe, but would see their numbers increase. It’s a bold assertion, but does it stack up?

The analysis by Emma Thelwell

The Tories have gone on the offensive after False Economy, a new cuts campaign website, used the Freedom of Information Act to collate NHS workforce figures, concluding that “the total confirmed, planned and potential NHS staff cuts currently stands at just over 53,150 posts”. The party’s deputy chairman Michael Fallon told us the figures were “confused”, and that although some bureaucratic posts would not be refilled, there would be more doctors and nurses. The question is how many of the job cuts predicted by False Economy will actually come to pass, and how many are back office posts rather than frontline staff.

False Economy touched a raw nerve with these figures, prompting the Conservatives to issue a rebuttal at dawn today. “This is scaremongering from the unions. We do not recognise the figures,” the Tories said, before listing a litany of fact-gathering offences. At a more civilised hour (after lunch, to be precise), Michael Fallon toured the TV studios.

He made some valid points.

Firstly, this headline figure includes Scotland, Ireland and Wales – despite the coalition government having no responsibility for the NHS in these regions.

FactCheck asked False Economy’s Chaminda Jayanetti, who collated the research, to strip this out. He did, and the figure drops to around 40,000.

The Tories also pointed out that False Economy makes a huge number of assumptions about job losses from figures which have not been finalised; they’ve counted natural wastage and reduced vacancies as cuts, and finally they have made no distinction between bureaucrats, doctors and nurses. They’ve got a point.

False Economy admitted: “Most of the cuts are likely to be achieved through natural wastage rather than compulsory redundancies.”

However, FactCheck recalls a report on the NHS which was commissioned by Labour and carried out by the consultants, McKinsey in 2009.

It called for a 10 per cent cut in the NHS workforce – or 137,000 job cuts over three years in order to save £20bn. That’s exactly the scale of savings demanded by the chancellor in last year’s spending review.

So if McKinsey’s figures are right, False Economy’s research could even be on the cautious side.

Now for the other half of Mr Fallon’s rebuttal – that these job cuts won’t affect the front line.

False Economy’s research says more than 3,800 clinical jobs are certainly at risk. Many NHS Trusts don’t always distinguish between ‘clinical’ and ‘non-clinical’ jobs.  So it’s hard to know where these job “cuts” could come.

Mr Fallon claimed: “The more this report is scrutinised, the clearer False Economy’s shameless and deeply irresponsible scaremongering becomes. The truth is coming out: their research is deeply suspect and the organisations they’re citing are setting the record straight.”

He flagged the University Hospital of North Staffordshire as a key example. Around 1,300 jobs were reported as up for the chop, but the Trust said today the staff are actually being moved into NHS community centres.

However, some job losses already announced undermine Mr Fallon’s claims. Barts and the London NHS Trust has said 630 posts will go, including 258 frontline nursing jobs. North West London Hospitals NHS Trust is losing 87 positions, 30 of them nursing and medical staff.

Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, the public service union, told FactCheck tonight: “You can’t cut £20bn from the NHS budget by saving on paperclips. We will have to cut frontline staff. Only last week St George’s and Kingston hospitals announced cuts of staff including nurses and doctors. That will be replicated up and down the country.”

Howard Catton, head of policy at the Royal College of Nursing, concurred. “If you drill down into the workforce data and look at the supply chain and retirement projections there are worrying signs that the nursing workforce is vulnerable and could reduce significantly in a relatively short period of time. We absolutely cannot take for granted or be complacent about the nursing workforce,” he said.

Cathy Newman’s verdict
Whether vacant NHS posts are left unfilled or doctors and nurses are fired, the patient still risks losing out. It’s too early to know exactly how many positions and people are vulnerable. But what is certain is that tens of thousands of posts may go (more than a hundred thousand if you prefer to take your facts from McKinsey than the unions). And on the evidence of the past few weeks, hospitals are going to be unable to make the scale of savings needed by cutting back office staff alone. Mr Fallon may be a good attack dog, but on this occasion FactCheck reckons he’s bitten off more than he can chew.