Donald Trump has won a decisive victory in the 2024 US presidential election, and looks set to comfortably win all seven key battleground states.
Even Democratic heartlands saw large swings towards Trump, while his Democratic rival Kamala Harris seems to have lost support among key demographic groups, including young people and women.
FactCheck takes a look.
Swing states
What happened in key battleground states?
The seven swing states – those which could reasonably be won by either candidate, and are therefore crucial in deciding the outcome of the election – are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
Votes are still being counted in Nevada and Arizona.
But among the five states where more than 90 per cent of votes have been counted, the results are clear – Trump comfortably won all of them.
Trump succeeded in flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin, with substantial swings of several percentage points. Michigan saw the biggest swing, of nearly five percentage points.
Trump held North Carolina since 2020, but he significantly increased his margin this time.
It’s expected that, once votes are counted, Trump will also have flipped Nevada and Arizona.
Biggest swings
But which states have seen the biggest overall swings toward Trump?
To the dismay of Democrats, some of the biggest swings to Trump came from Democratic strongholds like New York and New Jersey.
While Trump didn’t succeed in flipping these states, he did drastically reduce the Democratic margin.
New York saw the biggest swing to Trump of nearly twelve percentage points.
Biden had a margin of around 23 per cent in New York in 2020, but that shrunk to a margin of just 11 per cent for Harris in this election. Florida and Texas also saw some of the largest swings to Trump – he won those states in 2020 too, but he’s dramatically increased his margins in both.
We’ve used the Associated Press tally to get the latest 2024 results, and MIT Election Data to make our comparisons with 2020 results.
Who voted for Trump?
Exit polls also indicate that Trump has gained support among groups the Democrats traditionally count on. It’s important to note that the exact numbers below will be continually revised as experts get more data in the coming weeks.
We can see that, compared to 2020, Trump has substantially increased his lead among rural voters – this would have been important in winning the midwestern swing states in particular. He also seems to be expanding beyond his traditional vote base.
Democrats had a huge margin of 23 per cent among Latino men in 2020 – but Trump is now leading by 12 points among these voters. And Trump has even cut into the Democrats’ lead with women – which was 15 points last time, but just 8 points today.
This is despite a huge focus in Harris’ campaign on reproductive rights, and the election being held at the same time as ballots on abortion rights in certain states.
Finally, Trump has gained with young voters, particularly those aged 18 to 29 years, slashing the Democrat lead from 24 points to 11 points – this is after a huge campaign effort to target young men in particular.
The result of all these shifts is that Trump has won both the popular vote and a decisive victory in the electoral college – it’s estimated he will end up with over 300 electoral college votes, while only 270 are required for victory.
(Image credit: ASSOCIATED PRESS).