By Claire Wilde

Will an exodus of private school pupils “overwhelm” the state sector when VAT is added to school fees in January?

FactCheck takes a look.

What is the private school claim?

It’s the last school term before one of the new government’s most debated pledges kicks in – VAT on private school fees will be charged across the UK from January.

Many independent schools argue it will lead to an exodus of pupils from private settings, overloading an already-saturated state sector.

Would state schools have room?

FactCheck found most parts of the UK had plenty of capacity in state schools.

A study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, cited by the government, suggests private schools could lose between 4 per cent and 7 per cent of pupils in the coming years because of the addition of VAT to fees.

At secondary level, when any pressure would be most keenly felt, our exclusive analysis of Department for Education data found that 144 of 152 council areas in England would have enough available places to accommodate 7 per cent of local private school pupils in the 2025/26 school year.

Eight would not have this level of spare places: Coventry, Manchester, Stoke-on-Trent, Telford & Wrekin, Rutland, Kingston Upon Thames, Salford and Richmond Upon Thames.

The independent sector has argued that private schools could lose far more pupils – perhaps even as high as 25 per cent – in the coming years.

FactCheck analysis showed that 136 council areas would still be able to accommodate 25 per cent of local private secondary pupils. 16 did not have that level of spare places. These were the eight listed above, plus Gateshead, Wokingham, Harrow, Bristol, Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, West Sussex and Surrey.

The City of London was excluded from the analysis as it has a low number of households and no state secondaries.

What’s the picture across the UK?

In both Wales and Northern Ireland, all local government areas could accommodate 25 per cent of local private secondary school pupils, on analysis based on figures from 2022/23, FactCheck found.

In Scotland, all local government areas could accommodate 25 per cent of local private school pupils, on analysis based on the 2022/23 school year. However, our analysis looked at primary and secondary places together and could not examine the picture in secondary schools specifically.

It’s worth saying, these numbers show state school places overall in a council area and may vary at an even more local level or by year group.

What are councils saying?

Some of these councils told us they were confident they wouldn’t be oversubscribed.

Manchester City Council said while there “may be one or two localised pressures”, they were “not expecting a large cohort of pupils of a particular age range to suddenly want a local school place”.

Rutland County Council said many local private school pupils were boarders whose families did not live locally.

Other authorities were creating more places.

Wokingham Council said they were “funding an expansion programme across secondary schools which is due to add almost 1,000 more spaces over the next four years”.

Bristol City Council said it had “recently seen several new schools open in the area”.

A minority raised concerns that the policy could lead to oversubscribed state schools.

Cllr Catherine Faulks, of Kensington & Chelsea council, said: “While we know those committed to sending their children to private school are unlikely to suddenly change their mind, a rise in VAT does risk our excellent state schools and academies becoming oversubscribed, crowding out children from less affluent backgrounds.”

Meanwhile, West Sussex County Council said it was “not yet clear” what the impact of the policy would be.

‘Concern about the right spaces in the right places’

The Independent Schools Council represents most private schools.

Its chief executive Julie Robinson said: “While there may be general capacity for pupils, there is still concern about the right spaces in the right places being available for children displaced from their school by a tax on education.

“We are already hearing stories of families having issues in this regard, particularly owing to the rushed January implementation of the policy.”

Channel 4 News spoke to one school which has already seen its pupil numbers fall by 8 per cent this September, compared with last year.

Christine Cunniffe, principal of LVS Ascot School in Berkshire, said she expected “hotspots” where state secondaries would struggle to accommodate pupils moving from private schools.

She said: “I think the state sector have struggles of their own. We know what they are, the funding and everything else, and the last thing anybody wants to do is actually impose more children on them when they are already under huge constraints.”

What is the government saying?

A Treasury consultation on the plan ends on Sunday (15 September).

A government spokesperson told us: “We want to ensure all children have the best chance in life to succeed. Ending tax breaks on private schools will help to raise the revenue needed to fund our education priorities for next year, such as recruiting 6,500 new teachers.

“There has been an approximately 75 per cent increase in private sector fees since 2000 and the number of children in independent schools has remained steady, so we do not expect ending tax breaks for private schools to have a significant impact on the state sector.”