Committing to the triple lock pension will ensure an increase in pensions that will “outstrip” any loss from the Winter Fuel Payments, said Keir Starmer during Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs).

But is this right?

FactCheck takes a look.

Will the triple lock ‘outstrip’ Winter Fuel Payment losses?

The prime minister said during PMQs on 11 September that “we can make sure that, through the triple lock, increases in pensions will outstrip any loss of payment”, later adding: “we can commit ourselves to the triple lock, and that means that the state pension will increase by more than any loss of the Winter Fuel Payment.”

For context, the ‘triple lock’ means that the state pension goes up each year by either 2.5 per cent, inflation, or earnings growth – whichever is the highest.

Someone receiving the full ‘new State Pension’ is expected to see an increase of £460.2 per year to their state pension between financial years 2024/25 and 2025/26. For singles, this is an increase of £460.2 and for couples an increase of £920.4.

Someone receiving the full ‘Basic State Pension’ is expected to see an increase of £353.6 per year to their state pension between financial years 2024/25 and 2025/26. For singles, this is an increase of £353.6 and for couples an increase of £707.2.

But the PM’s comments come after the new government decided to change who would be eligible to receive the Winter Fuel Payment of up to £300, with millions of pensioners to miss out this year.

So, will triple lock increases offset Winter Fuel Payment losses?

The answer to that is “not straightforward” – for a number of reasons – according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Firstly, not everyone gets the same amount of state pension, so whether or not this “outstrips” the loss of payments would depend on pension entitlement.

And the amount people get for the Winter Fuel Payment also varies. For example, single people above state pension age (66) and couples where at least one person is above state pension age but both below age 80 lose £200 this winter.

But single people above age 80 and couples where at least one person is above age 80 lose £300 this winter.

It also depends on what timeframe the PM is referring to, as the state pension uprating takes place in April next year, but the changes to Winter Fuel Payments are happening this year, so those who are no longer eligible for the winter top-up are likely to feel the immediate effect of this.

Winter Fuel Payment is also a tax free payment, whereas state pension is subject to income tax, so the loss vs gain depends on how much (if any) tax the person pays, the IFS said.

Pensioners were also receiving cost of living payments last year that they now no longer get, so the amount that pensioners actually miss out on this winter will also depend if this is taken into account.

And it’s also worth noting that even though the PM is saying the triple lock will offset any Winter Fuel Payment losses, the IFS noted that “pensioners would have expected their state pension to increase in line with the triple lock anyway because Labour promised to keep the triple lock in their manifesto.”

So, “in that sense removing Winter Fuel Payments while keeping the triple lock commitment is a cut compared to what they were expecting.”

A Government spokesperson told FactCheck: “We are committed to giving pensioners the dignity and security they deserve in retirement but given the dire state of the public finances we have inherited it’s right that we target support to those who need it most.”

“Over a million pensioners will continue to receive the Winter Fuel Payment and through our commitment to protect the triple lock, those on the full new State Pension will receive over £400 boost – twice the average Winter Fuel Payment.”

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