The claim
Louise Ellman MP: “You can’t say you’ve protected capital spending on transport as you’re alleging.”
Prime Minister David Cameron: “I think we can.”
Exchange between Louise Ellman, chair Transport Select Committee and David Cameron, at Liaison Committee meeting 17 November 2010
The background
In an exchange between the Prime Minister and the Transport Select Committee chair, Louise Ellman, the question of whether the government is committed to transport as a driver of growth was hotly debated. Mrs Ellman pointed to figures which she said demonstrated an 11 per cent cut in capital funding for transport over the next four years.
Not so, countered Mr Cameron, we are protecting transport because we’re spending £30bn on transport infrastructure over the next four years, which is more than the previous Government planned. So who is right?
The analysis
We asked the Transport Select Committee office – where Mrs Ellman’s figures came from – and they pointed us to the Department for Transport’s website. It does indeed say it is to make cuts of 11 per cent in capital projects compared to this year.
But what about Mr Cameron’s defence of his claim that he is committed to transport?
The Prime Minister explained: “The point is, the last Government announced a lot of cuts in capital spending, we inherited that situation. We took that and in some cases, we added back in money and so that’s why I’m able to say to you that spending over £30bn on transport infrastructure over the next four years is more than the last Government planned.”
Now it is true that the Spending Review set out £30bn of capital spending – £14bn for Network Rail, £10bn for roads and local transport schemes and £6bn for Transport for London. Yet it is difficult to tell whether this is more than Labour would have planned had they been in charge of the Spending Review.
We asked the Institute for Fiscal Studies about the comparison with Labour’s plans, and research economist Rowena Crawford told us it just isn’t possible to say. “We can’t compare plans because we just don’t know what Labour would have done had they remained in power,” she said. “They didn’t even have a baseline plan for what they would have spent.”
The verdict
It seems Mr Cameron’s claim is not quite as robust as he might want it to appear. Yes, the Coalition has committed to spending £30bn over the spending review period on transport capital projects, but yes, this is also an 11 per cent cut compared to this year. And ultimately, we simply don’t know what Labour would have done had it won the May election, so for these reasons we’ve rated this one inconclusive.
