The claim
“Tory MEP Daniel Hannan stated after the 2009 European Parliamentary elections that the Greens were likely to win Parliamentary representation at the next election in two places – Brighton and Oxford East.”
Oxfordshire Green Party campaign leaflet, Spring 2010
The background
There has been some speculation that Caroline Lucas, who leads the Green party, is in a strong position to win Brighton Pavillion.
The Greens’ candidate in Oxford East is Sushila Dhall, an Oxford City Councillor. In 2005 the Greens received 4.3% of the vote in the seat. However, the boundaries have been redrawn and the constituency takes in more of the city, including Oxford colleges. The Greens traditionally have strong support amongst student voters.
But isn’t it odd for a leaflet from the Greens to cite a Conservative MEP talking up the level of their support? Particularly when the quote comes from the well known eurosceptic Daniel Hannan who hit the headlines last year when he said that the NHS was a 60-year mistake which he wouldn’t wish on anyone.
The analysis
In 2009, following the European elections, Daniel Hannan wrote on his blog: “Congratulations to the Greens. On the basis of last night’s result, they would have won Westminster seats in Oxford and Brighton: an endorsement of their South East MEP, the charming and clever Caroline Lucas.”
However, it does not automatically follow that Hannan thinks the Greens will win Brighton Pavilion or Oxford East. Not only is this a different election (and in Oxford East with a different candidate) but it is being fought on the first-past-the-post system. The European elections use proportional representation with a party list system. This means that results from one cannot simply be extrapolated for the other – even if changing political circumstances are ignored.
British MEPs represent much bigger constituencies than MPs. European election results are not officially broken down by Westminster parliamentary constituencies. In the south east region the Conservatives took the first, third, sixth and eighth spots, UKIP took second and seventh, the Lib Dems came fourth and tenth, the Greens took the fifth spot, with Labour in ninth position.
When FactCheck contacted Mr Hannan to ask did he really mean that they were in the running for two seats in the current election, he replied: “No, of course I didn’t.
“I can only imagine that they are referring to the blog I wrote immediately after the European election last June, in which I pointed out that, had it been a general election, they would have won Oxford East and Brighton. This is a simple statement of fact: we know it, because the count was done seat by seat.”
A spokesman for the Oxfordshire Greens told FactCheck that the leaflet was put out just after the 2009 European elections. When we pointed out that it was dated Spring 2010 he expressed surprise. He confirmed that Hannan’s blog piece was the source, but added that he would need to speak to the person who wrote the leaflet. He then told us that he was referring the matter to the national Green Party.
The Green Party’s official website lists the candidates that it considers to be its three top prospects – and they do not include Sushila Dhall. They are Caroline Lucas (in Brighton Pavilion), Adrian Ramsay (in Norwich South) and Darren Johnson (in Lewisham Deptford).
A spokesman for the national Green Party told FactCheck: “On this occasion the Oxfordshire newsletter in question did not live up to its customary standard of editing. Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan said that on the basis of 2009 Euro-election results the Greens would have won seats at Westminster including in Brighton.”
The verdict
Daniel Hannan has never claimed that the Greens were likely to win either Brighton Pavilion or Oxford East in the current election. His comments were made almost a year ago and based on results referring to a very different electoral system.
