Yesterday FackCheck looked at the prime minister’s claim that the defence budget has been rising every year since 1997. We concluded that in real terms – that is, taking inflation into account – Gordon Brown was incorrect. In real terms, the defence budget has fallen year-on-year four times since 1997.
Getting political
Today it all got very political. In Parliament, Sir George Young, the Shadow Commons Leader, called for the prime minister to correct his statement about defence spending. He reminded the House of the ministerial code, which requires ministers to correct any inadvertent error at the earliest opportunity.
“Given that the Prime Minister is at risk of inadvertently misleading parliament,” said Sir George. “When will he put the record straight?”
Not misled the House
Harriet Harman, Leader of the Commons, defended Brown’s remarks: “I strongly refute any suggestion or implications that (Gordon Brown) has in any way misled the House. (Brown) has been absolutely forthright about the defence budget and this government’s long standing and strong commitment to ensure that our defence forces have the resources they need.”
But Gordon Brown is still standing by his claim. In an interview with British Forces Broadcasting Service, he repeated that the defence budget rose in “real terms every year”. But, as Ministry of Defence figures show, when adjusted for inflation the defence budget fell three times when Brown was chancellor and once when he was prime minister.
Reality check
We showed the defence spending table to Professor Malcolm Chalmers, a professional fellow at The Royal United Services Institute, for a second opinion. He agrees: “In real terms, according to this table, spending has not risen every year.”
The Ministry of Defence point to the “near-cash” figure. That’s the raw number without inflation or depreciation. “The basic point is that near-cash spending on defence has risen each year,” says Professor Chalmers. “But the near-cash spending in real terms has not.”
Military inflation
Another factor not mentioned in yesterday’s FactCheck is that the MOD has a higher inflation rate than the rest of the economy. It is usually around 7-8% where as the consumer price index is currently 3.5%.
The military sector has a higher inflation because equipment and operational costs suffer from bigger annual increases. So setting the defence budget against the CPI is unfair.
If the defence budget was calculated against a truer military inflation, the figures would make even more grim reading for the prime minister, according to the experts.
