Gingrich v Romney – the Florida keys

From the alligator-infested swamps to the glitz of Miami beach – as Republicans go to the polls today across Florida, Mitt Romney is pretty confident about his chances. The latest poll by Quinnipac University suggests he’ll romp home with 43 per cent of the vote, compared to Newt Gingrich, trailing on 29 per cent. Last night Romney was in buoyant mood, telling reporters on his campaign plane: “It feels good, it feels good at this point.”

Reversal of fortunes

It’s all a very different picture from just 10 days ago when it was Gingrich riding high in the polls, fuelled by his surprise victory in South Carolina and some strong performances in a series of debates. But his initial surge proved unable to withstand the vertiable tidal wave of negative advertising pumped out by the Romney camp: Florida, after all, is a state where wholesale, rather than retail politics matters: the power of the advertising dollar.

It feels good, it feels good at this point. Mitt Romney

Romney and the wealthy super PACs – or political action committees – that support him, have splurged an astonishing $15m on television advertising alone, with millions more on newspaper ads and mailshots. That’s four times the amount spent by Gingrich and his backers.

What’s more, almost all those ads have been overwhelmingly negative. Not that the former speaker is holding back either: “I have never seen a candidate for president that methodically dishonest.” he claimed yesterday. There’s no playing nicely in this race.

Gingrich powers onward

For despite all the evidence stacked against him, Gingrich has insisted he’ll be in this race for the long run. His spokesman, RC Hammond, said “We’ve set a battlefield where we can fight and win, where there’s a two-man race where we can take on Romney.” They’re hoping that if fellow conservative Rick Santorum drops out – and possibly the maverick Ron Paul too – the anti-Romney vote would be unified at last. But Romney’s impressive machine has been busy building the groundwork for each of the seven contests due next month, and beyond.

I have never seen a candidate for president that methodically dishonest. Newt Gingrich

“Speaker Gingrich, he’s not feeling very excited these days – I know, it’s sad, he’s been flailing around a bit trying to go after me for one thing or another… It’s been kind of painfully revealing to watch,” Romney said, pushing home that confidence thing some more.

But his own campaign acknowledges that he can’t afford to be complacent, even if he nails down that comfortable win in the “sunshine state”, senior aide Eric Ferhnstrom telling reporters “You are not going to see Mitt Romney go into cruise control after Florida.”

Sensible advice. For although it seems well nigh impossible for Gingrich to actually snatch the nomination at this point, it won’t be plain sailing for Romney either. As Richard Miniter notes in Forbes, despite the tens of millions of dollars he’s poured into his campaign, he’s still never been able to secure the support of a majority of Republican voters. He’s rarely pulled off a strong performance in debates. His links to Bain Capital have surrounded him with the whiff of Wall Street, while his record in Massachussetts still alienates many staunch conservatives, even if he’s not the “Masachussetts liberal” which Gingrich would like to call him.

Laughing into the abyss

In a long drawn out contest – and a highly polarised electorate – there’s nothing to stop Newt Gingrich powering on; not unless the money, or his supreme sense of self-entitlement, runs out. Thanks to those super PACs, he’s been thrown enough of a financial lifeline to make it this far, despite Romney’s huge dollar advantage.

You are not going to see Mitt Romney go into cruise control. Eric Ferhnstrom, senior Romney aide

And as Politico noted, he’s certainly got the chutzpah: “Laughing into the abyss is not an entirely new experience for a candidate who dragged his campaign along through sheer willpower last summer, after his staff and consultants resigned.”

The GOP’s new rules are also helping to drag things out, by making it harder for Romney to reach that magic threshold of 1,144 convention delegates which he needs to secure the nomination. This year any primary or caucus held before April can only award delegates proportionally: just 504 will be winner-takes-all. The vast majority of delegates won’t even be in play until long after Super Tuesday, on 6 March. So like it or not, Romney’s in this for the long term. The GOP is bracing itself for a fearsome fight.

Perhaps the party could have saved itself a new million dollars, and a lot of fratricidal pain. Florida’s Local10.com news reports that workers at the Jungle Island orangutan school took their own highly scientific poll among six apes, who were offered an i-Pad to choose between the Republican contenders. Three plumped for Romney, two picked Gingrich, while one, rather sensibly, refused to take part at all. That’s almost exactly the same result as the outcome predicted tonight. A Republican primate, rather than a primary election? They’d be laughing all the way to the bank.

Felicity Spector writes on US politics for Channel 4 News