Government launches ‘branch and root’ review into defence

With the future of America’s military spending abroad looking uncertain, in the UK, the government has commissioned a review into Britain’s defensive capabilities.

The prime minister has promised to outline a route towards increasing defence spending to 2.5% of the economy. But Keir Starmer hasn’t yet said when that might happen.

As we reported earlier, the new Republican vice presidential candidate has said that Britain is the first country where nuclear weapons are in the hands of Islamists. I spoke with the Defence Secretary, John Healey on this.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Can you confirm whether or not Britain’s nuclear weapons are currently in the hands of Islamists?

John Healey: Next to no one would recognise that description of our country.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: He was joking, but there’s a serious point there, wasn’t there? And it’s very undiplomatic.

John Healey: It was not a serious point. It was a controversial point, and I don’t think anyone should be surprised. President Trump’s a controversial leader. He’s picked a controversial running mate. Let’s see who the American people elect, and as a UK government, we will work with whoever they do elect.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: As a challenge for your defence review, who is the most challenging and unpredictable figure now? Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin?

John Healey: The most serious challenge lies in the war in Ukraine. The decade or more of Russian aggression that we face, the growing alliance with Iran and North Korea, the more widespread systemic challenge that China poses. This is a world in which it is growing more insecure, where the importance of alliances is increasing, and where the threats are multiplying.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: But you now need to factor in the likelihood of a Trump government, and Vance and Trump are both against much more military aid to Ukraine. Vance is very explicit about it, doesn’t want to be spending more money there. What happens if it stops? Europe can’t fill that gap, can it? That’s tens of billions of dollars.

John Healey: First of all, our UK-US relationship goes back decades and has survived all sorts of ups and downs in the political cycle on both sides. But importantly, last week we were at Nato. The first ever summit of 32 nations in Nato with the US at the centre there. It is bigger, stronger and more united than it’s been before, and it’s an alliance of democracies. 11 Nato countries have changed their government in the last year alone.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Many of whom are still not paying 2 per cent.

John Healey: 23 out of 32 are paying, and the rest of them are increasing. So Nato is recognising the challenge that we all face and we face it together. Our defence review will have a Nato first policy at heart. It will be designed to help us, I suppose, get to grips with the threats we face, the capabilities we need to better defend Britain, but also for Britain to become a better ally.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Are your terms of reference, what can we do with 2.5 per cent of GDP? What if they come back and say we need more than 2.5 per cent?

John Healey: The framework for the review is the manifesto commitments that we’ve made, a defence review that will complete within a year. We’ll do that properly, but we’ll do it at pace, because we recognise the imperative to do that, and a clear commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: What if they say that’s not enough? Which they might well. A lot of experts are saying 2.5 per cent basically enables you to maintain the armed forces, but if you really want to change our capability, you need a lot more.

John Healey: So a defence review at this time, as a new government, allows us not just to deal with the threats that we face, get to grips with the capabilities we need and the true state of our armed forces, but allows us also to get to grips with the finances available as we open the books. If you like, this is the way that we balance the imperative for greater national security and the responsibility for sound public finance. That’s what we’re doing as a government.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: So if they come back and say you actually need to spend three [per cent], will you be rethinking the finances?

John Healey: One of the things about external reviewers and the invitation to think afresh, is that you don’t constrain them before they start, but the terms of reference are clear. The terms of reference of the manifesto in which this government was elected, and that’s the job they’ve taken on, and I’m really grateful to all three of them for being willing to do this.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: There have been two reviews in the last three years. Why do we need another?

John Healey: Two reviews in the last three years have gone nowhere. The last review was a year ago, before the conflict broke out in Gaza, in the Middle East. Before the nature of warfare in Ukraine has so dramatically and rapidly changed, and before some of the other growing instabilities became apparent as well. So, absolutely, this is needed and this is needed now. And we will do this rapidly to provide Britain with a foundation, not just to see defence at the heart of our security in this country, but also at the heart of our growth and prosperity of this country.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Are you prepared to think the unthinkable? Perhaps scrap the aircraft carriers, they are all the products of the new Labour government of 1997’s defence review. Do we need them?

John Healey: The Prime Minister has launched the review today. The last thing I’m going to do is start to second guess or deal with hypotheticals. They’ve got a very clear set of terms of reference. We want them to help make the assessment of the threats we face. We want them to be able to help, I suppose, draw up a plan for how we are better ready to fight stronger, in our ability to defeat anyone that attacks us, and therefore better placed to be able to deter those effects in the first place.