Haiti quake: will violence and disorder follow?

After any earthquake, people need food, water, shelter and medical aid. But in Haiti, plagued by instability and violence, law and order is equally urgent.

The collapse of government institutions is symbolised by the ruined presidential palace, but government was weak to begin with.

For two years, from 2004 to 2006, the country was in the grip of gangs, loosely affiliated to political movements, surviving from drug trafficking, kidnapping and extortion.

In 2007, most gang leaders were imprisoned but the national pententiary collapsed in the earthquake and we don’t know if the criminals perished or escaped.

The UN peacekeepers on whom the country’s fragile stability was based are in disarray, at least 16 of their number dead, their headquarters destroyed.

A programme to train and equip 14,000 Haitian police by 2011 will inevitably be delayed. One account I read said no policemen were on the streets, because they’re too busy trying to rescue their families.

When people are hungry and desperate, only the strongest survive.

In Haiti, that may mean those with access to weapons who can loot and steal. Electricity was already intermittant in the shanties like Cite Soleil; now the entire capital is in the dark.

Once violence starts, it’s hard to stop. Humanitarian supplies will have to be protected by armed guards. This could be one of the most difficult international aid efforts yet.