Us president Barack Obama has been in power a year – but, as Sarah Smith writes, with falling ratings there is not much to celebrate.
Apparently President Obama did not watch the “off year” election results come in last night.
He already knew it was going to be bad news. So today, on the anniversary of his own historic victory a year ago the Democrats are left wondering where all their voters went.
The key results that really matter are the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey. Both had been held by democrats – both are now having Republicans move into the governor’s mansion.
Republicans say it’s a clear rejection of Obama and his policies. That these results prove that voters don’t want his healthcare reforms and are angry about all the government spending that has sent the deficit sky high.
For obvious reason the White House say these votes have nothing to do with them.
Obama did gamble some of his political capital by campaigning visibly for the Democratic candidates in both New Jersey and Virginia. He even repeated some of his famous campaign slogans that we haven’t heard for a year. But all those new voters who came out for Obama in 2008 were anything but “fired up” this year – and clearly not “ready to go”. Young people, black voters and independents all stayed home.
But is it really a referendum on the president?
Yes say Republicans. No say the polls.
Most voters who did bother to turn up said their vote was not motivated by a desire to either reward or punish the occupants of the White House and that’s what the president’s staff are clinging on to.
His senior advisor David Axelrod saying, “Whatever’s driving these voters it wasn’t attitudes toward the president” adding that he doesn’t think these results portend long term trends.
Obviously Democrats have to hope that they don’t predict the future. Otherwise Democrats could be in a lot of trouble come the mid term elections this time next year.
Just remember how Bill Clinton won a great victory for the White House but after stunning mid term losses just two years later found it almost impossible to get anything passed through congress.
That’s a fate Obama will have to work hard to avoid. And obviously his Democratic colleagues in the House of Representatives who will all be up for re-election next year will be watching last nights results too with the same thought in mind.
And that might be where these results really do hurt Obama’s agenda. Among members of his own party who just got a little bit more nervous about their own re-election prospects.
Representatives who saw that having the president on your side doesn’t guarantee you re-election and may now play it very cautiously for the next 12 months.
Any Democrats with small majorities are now much less likely to vote for a controversial health care bill if they think their constituents might punish them for it. And much less likely to vote for “cap and trade” climate change legislation that their own voters might not like it.
And so Obama might try to tell himself these results aren’t a judgement on policies – but they will none the less significantly affect his agenda.
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