Harris has ‘significantly improved’ her standing in key states, says American pollster

We speak to American pollster and communications consultant Frank Luntz, who’s also been in Chicago.

Matt Frei: Let’s start with Gaza. Once upon a time, not so long ago, when Biden was still the leading candidate, there was a real feeling that especially amongst Arab Americans in places like Michigan, which is a swing state, the Gaza war could really hurt the Democrats. Is that still the case?

Frank Luntz: It doesn’t feel that way. I’ve tended to the protests here over the last three days and they’ve been very, very small. Just outside the convention yesterday, there are maybe 15 protesters seated 100 feet from the convention site, presenting their point of view, and then about a third of a mile away, there were several hundred. But all the expectations of tens of thousands of protesters have dissipated, and they, frankly, have not been a factor. In fact, most of the delegates have entered an exit from the convention hall, having no idea that there are protests going on just a few hundred feet away.

Mat Frei: What about Arab Americans in Michigan not voting for the Democrats, being uncommitted, as they were before, because of the war?

Frank Luntz: It’s a fair point and we don’t know what they’re going to do. I believe that the debate on September 10th is going to determine that, that people are withholding their judgement, that they’re saying to pollsters like me that they’re undecided. They still don’t like Trump’s policies. But the Democrats are now not aligned with them. And what I saw at the convention hall were a number of Jewish delegates saying, I’m Democrat and I’m pro-Israel. So it’s both sides engaged in politics right now, and you can’t call where it’s going to go because even the people themselves don’t have an answer.

Matt Frei: You felt the enthusiasm here. You’ve seen how much money Kamala Harris has raised. Is any of that reflected in the polls.

Frank Luntz: Absolutely. I’ve never seen a candidate in my career do as much of a turnaround, in terms of her image, her reputation. Joe Biden was losing by four, maybe four and a half points, when he dropped out. She is now winning by three or four points. That is a significant change. But I remind your viewers, the only thing that really matters is Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona.

In those seven states, Harris has significantly improved her standing. And all those states, all seven of them, are simply too close to call right now. The enthusiasm is real. Younger voters are absolutely jumping on board. In fact, younger women, it is a significant impact. And I’ll tell you something. It may even affect the Senate and the House control.

Matt Frei: I said in my piece that she needs to win men over because men in large numbers are siding with Trump. Can she do that with Walz, especially?

Frank Luntz: Walz gave a very good speech yesterday. People were very satisfied with it. Ideologically, she seems to be moving… Frankly, she seems to be moving slightly to the left, and that’ll be harmful to her and winning over undecided voters. But Republicans have the same challenge with women that she has with men. And we’re going to have an election that is more divided by gender and by generation than any that I’ve been involved with in the last 35 years. Younger women, completely pro-Harris, older men, completely pro-Trump, and others somewhere in the middle.

Matt Frei: What’s more important for winning the White House? Men or women?

Frank Luntz: I can’t… I’ve never ducked a question from you ever in our professional relationship. The fact is that both are important. And in the end, it’s who votes. Older men are likely to vote. Younger women, not as much. But she’s really driven that support. It’s significant. I think it’s just simply too close to call.