A third runway at Heathrow is one of the expansion options put forward in a first report published by the Airports Commission.
A second runway at Gatwick airport in West Sussex is also on the options shortlist from the Whitehall-appointed commission, which is chaired by former Financial Services Authority chief Sir Howard Davies.
But the commission stopped short of listing Stansted airport in Essex as a possible extra runway candidate, saying that overall one extra runway would be needed to be operational in south east England by 2030 with a second additional runway likely to be needed to be operational by 2050.
London Mayor Boris Johnson is bitterly opposed to expansion at Heathrow and favours a new airport in the Thames Estuary, dubbed “Boris Island”.
The commission said it had not shortlisted any of the Thames Estuary options “because there are too many uncertainties and challenges surrounding them at this stage”.
It said it would undertake further study of the Isle of Grain option in the first half of 2014 and “will reach a view later next year on whether that option offers a credible proposal for consideration alongside the other shortlisted options”.
The commission said it had not shortlisted proposals for expansion at Stansted or Birmingham Airports. but it added: “There is likely to be a case for considering them as potential options for any second new runway by 2050.”
The commission said it had concluded “there is a need for one net additional runway to be in operation in the South East by 2030”.
It addded that its analysis also indicated “that there is likely to be a demand case for a second additional runway to be operational by 2050”.
Mr Johnson said today: “Howard Davies’ recognition of the importance of a hub airport to the economy and his decision to include the option of a new hub in the inner estuary on the Isle of Grain is both sensible and pragmatic, and is welcome news for Londoners and for the future competitive needs of the UK population as a whole.”
The report also contains recommendations to the government for immediate action to improve the use of existing runway capacity, including trials at Heathrow of “measures to smooth the early-morning arrival schedule to minimise stacking and delays and to provide more predictable respite for local people”.
The commission also wants to see a a package of surface transport improvements, including enhancement of Gatwick Airport railway station and improvements to the rail link between London and Stansted.
Sir Howard’s team also called for the establishment of an Independent Noise Authority “to provide expert and impartial advice about the noise impacts of aviation and to facilitate the delivery of future improvements to airspace operations”.
This is the first of two reports that the commission will make. The second, when definite runway decisions will be taken, will come in the summer of 2015 – after the next general election.