How did the gunman get so close to Trump in Pennsylvania?

We spoke to Ben Joelson, who’s head of security risk at the Chertoff Group advisory firm. We began by asking for his reaction to what happened.

Ben Joelson: I think this is a shocking moment for us in the United States. It’s obviously been 40 or 50 years since we’ve seen an attack on a candidate like this, in the middle of a presidential election. I think also from a security perspective and from those of us in this industry, this is an example of the type of scenarios that we’re most concerned about. It appears to be a lone wolf-type situation. And I would just say from the get-go, these types of scenarios are the most difficult for law enforcement to detect, and to kind of interfere with and disrupt their plans before an actual attack or event occurs. So certainly a sombre moment for us here.

Jackie Long: And exactly on that in terms of the investigation, this sort of dual priority to find out more about who the gunman was, his motive, but also what appears to be catastrophic failures on behalf of the Secret Service.

Ben Joelson: From a Secret Service perspective, if you take a step back and think about their mandate and the difficulty that you have, particularly in a democracy, of trying to balance a candidate’s access to the public in these events which have tens of thousands of people attending. An attacker only needs to be right one time, as we saw, and the defenders and those folks that are constantly working with law enforcement, it’s a complex orchestra on a very rigorous schedule to try and advance these sites and get everything prepared.

Jackie Long: Some of the eyewitness reports suggesting that the gunman was able to bear crawl with an assault rifle to within just over 100m of the president. I take your point about how difficult security is in these scenarios, but the question is being asked, how can this possibly have happened? How can he have got so close?

Ben Joelson: I think that is exactly what the investigators are going to be looking at now. If you notice some of the preliminary reports, the reaction time of the Secret Service was immediate. And the counter-sniper teams that engaged, responded to neutralise the threat immediately. But to your point, there’s an element of how do we ensure that all of the lines of sight over a potential event are covered and protected and denied?

Jackie Long: We know the oversight committee in Congress has summoned the Secret Service director, saying Americans demand answers. That’s certainly true. How long do you think it will take before we have those answers?

Ben Joelson: That’s hard to say. What I do predict is that you will see an increased security bubble obviously around both candidates, particularly entering the RNC. I think you’re going to see a lot more of a visible security presence and perimeter being pushed outward if you’re planning to attend these events. In terms of the investigation, time will tell. I think we’re most interested in learning about who the shooter was. Was he connected to any other groups, or was this a pure lone wolf- style attack? The goal is to never get to the point that we saw yesterday, but to make sure you’re detecting that kind of needle in a stack of needles.

Jackie Long: That issue that you raised at the beginning. They’re trying to create enough security at the same time as allowing access to the candidates. Do you anticipate that will change now?

Ben Joelson: I think both candidates and our process in general focuses on not shying away from a security concern, but continuing to to engage with the American people and a dialogue during an important election year. So I don’t see that schedule decreasing. But I do anticipate, at least in the near term, you will see security infrastructure dramatically expanded, potentially at some of these locations, in a visible way to deter any potential copycat actors.

Jackie Long: One of the greatest fears is exactly that, that this will precipitate more violence. What is your assessment of that?

Ben Joelson: This is something that both sides will be looking at, because obviously you would be concerned about a retribution or a potential retribution. You would be concerned about a copycat. There’s somebody saying there’s an exploitable gap that they could take advantage of. We don’t have any overarching concerns. I don’t have any overarching concerns that that’s imminent. There’s certainly no intelligence to suggest that.

Jackie Long: And a tense time in what was already a tense time in America?

Ben Joelson: Yes, ma’am.