How inclusive do Syrians believe new leaders will be?

The UN’s Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen has met the new administration now in control in Damascus and called on them to create a political transition that includes the “broadest range of Syrian society”. Mr Pedersen added that  there is now hope we can see “the beginnings of a new Syria”.

We spoke to Dr H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow in Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, and started by asking him how inclusive Syrians believe their new leader can be.

Dr H.A. Hellyer: I think that these are very early days. I think that there are certain things that are certain. One of those is that there was no path ahead for Syria getting itself out of the quagmire with Bashar al-Assad at the helm.

Cathy Newman: Some Syrians don’t think that the HTS leader will include them all. Is that scepticism justified, do you think?

Dr H.A. Hellyer: I think caution about such things is incredibly normal, and I think it’s down to the HTS government, the transitional authorities, to put those concerns to rest. Now, I will say that thus far there have been some good indications, there have been some good statements, some very public meetings with different representatives of a broad variety of Syrian society. That’s good. We wait to see how these will actually be implemented in terms of policies and eventual constitution. I think the important thing, though, is that there is an opportunity here to even have those discussions in an open forum which didn’t exist before.

Cathy Newman: What influence can Turkey bring to bear, do you think, to persuade the HTS to live up to its message on inclusivity?

Dr H.A. Hellyer: I think Turkey has tremendous influence in Syria, and I suspect that they are trying to use that influence to get HTS to send the right signals to the international community.

Cathy Newman: And is there a real prospect of a new civil war in the northeast of Syria or, at least, you know, a really protracted period of instability?

Dr H.A. Hellyer: We’re in a time now of tremendous flux. I think there are possibilities and potentials for all sorts of scenarios. I hope that this will not lead to any type of civil war up in the north. I hope the negotiations are genuinely and fruitfully carried out in good faith and that we avoid that scenario completely.