‘If Israel is behind pager attacks, it’s signalling readiness for escalation’, says Israeli assassination expert

We were joined from Tel Aviv by Ronen Bergman, journalist and author of ‘Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations.’

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: This wouldn’t be the first time that Israel had used a communications device in an attack, but certainly on this scale, it seems unprecedented. Is it becoming any clearer how this might have been done?

Ronen Bergman: We’re talking about something between 4,000 and 5,000 devices. It’s very hard to tamper with each one separately and leave no trace. So as Israel did in other places, it’s getting into the chain of supply or creating the chain of supply – yet to be seen. And also to create the device or tamper with the device in a way that would not create any attention, that would not create suspicion in the airports if it contains explosives – in a way that the whole chain of production, marketing, selling and delivery, would not be suspected by the military intelligence apparatus of Hezbollah, that could be a concern of such hacking or sabotaging or booby trapping devices. The fact that Israel, or whoever did it, was able to supply so many for so long – and that, at least until recently, no suspicion was risen and Israel was able to explode – means that this operation was very complicated. And at least from the Israeli point of view, reached its goal.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: It’s certainly humiliating, I’m sure, for Hezbollah. But where does this fit into a strategy, if the defence minister now says ‘there’s a new phase in the war’? What would be the strategy in this kind of mass attack that will inevitably hit civilians?

Ronen Bergman: You need to ask the minister of defence if you think that he ordered the attack. I’m not here to speak for him. I could see, potentially, a few goals. Israel was severely hit, surprised, Israeli deterrence was severely beaten. The surprise Hamas attack of October 7th last year. The second is that since October 8th, Hezbollah, unprovoked, has been attacking Israel, something that forced the evacuation of 100,000 civilians from the north of Israel. And I think shed some light into the needs, from the Israeli point of view, to re-demand the implementation of the United Nations Security Council decision 1701, which basically said ‘all cross-border forces should move north to the Litani River’, something that Hezbollah violated brutally throughout time since then. So if Israel was behind it – if I could maybe try to think of the decision-making process – then Israel was trying to signal to Hezbollah that if this doesn’t happen, Israel is ready for escalation. Now, is that wise? I’m not sure. This could deteriorate into escalation.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: In terms of the decision making, I know for your book you spoke to practically everybody in the Israeli intelligence set-up. How would a decision like this be made? Would it be the prime minister’s decision? Would it be Mossad? Who would be doing it?

Ronen Bergman: Now, at the end of the day, it needs to be – it’s either the prime minister, or a smaller group, very small group, of ministers. It’s always the political level. It’s never just the professionals from the defence establishment. They will recommend – it’s bottom up – they will recommend usually on a certain assassination or operation. This will be brought to a decision or, sorry, a discussion in something called Varash – this is the committee for the chiefs of the intelligence, like the British, the JIC – and then brought to the cabinet or to the prime minister. They will make a call, no one else.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Right, so it’s absolutely knitted together.