If not Biden, who? Which Democrat could have best chance of beating Trump?
Ciaran Jenkins
Data Correspondent and Presenter
In the coming days, what everyone in US politics is watching for is how Biden polls against Trump, specifically in the battleground swing states that decide presidential elections.
It was Joe Biden who asked for that TV debate – the earliest ever in a presidential election – for one reason: he was behind in the polls and bet on himself winning the debate and winning back support.
It backfired. Massively. The post-debate polls on average show Biden falling further behind Trump. But one poll really seems to have spooked Democrats.
The New York Times poll the day before the debate was already bad for Biden – six points behind with registered voters. After the debate, it showed Biden nine points behind Trump.
Despite his age, the case for Biden was always that he’s the best candidate to beat Trump.
Now, though, there is open talk of who might do better – and there’s still time to switch candidates.
A CNN poll from after the debate had Biden six percentage points behind Trump. But Kamala Harris, the vice president, was just two points behind Trump in a hypothetical matchup – better placed than Biden in this poll.
And while many see her as the most likely to step in, there are others in the mix.
Gavin Newsom was five behind Trump. Like Kamala Harris, he’s from the Democratic heartland of California – where he is governor – and some say neither therefore has a track record with vital swing voters.
Gretchen Whitmer, by contrast, is governor of a swing state, Michigan, and was also five behind Trump.
Another post-debate poll, from Reuters/Ipsos, showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat, with Harris one point behind Trump, and Gretchen Whitmer again five behind Trump.
But they did ask people about someone else – former first lady Michelle Obama, who has repeatedly shot down the idea of running.
She polled a huge 11 points ahead of Donald Trump, the only Democrat to beat him in this poll.
They’re the national polls, but in the coming days, what everyone in US politics is watching for is how Biden polls against Trump, specifically in the battleground swing states that decide presidential elections.
Biden won the Presidency in 2020 based on just 44,000 votes in the swing states – that’s how important they are.
If Biden’s numbers are bad in the swing states, the calls to replace him will grow louder.