Iran: Ahmadinejad faces a serious challenge

An enormous thunderstorm has blown up over Tehran tonight. Maybe tomorrow’s election results will bring another kind of tempest.  

I’m cautious about opinion polling in Iran, but it’s clear that the opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi is at the very least a serious challenge to President Ahmadinejad, who seemed so secure just three weeks ago.

I had an interesting meeting today with one of Mr Mousavi’s main strategists, Sadegh Kharazi, and learnt a little more about how this campaign has come together.

First he suggested that many in Iran’s revolutionary establishment are fed up with Mr Ahmadinejad’s populist economic policies which have pleased those who get handouts, but created  inflation of up to 25 per cent.

“Ahmadinejad wanted to play the role of Robin Hood, but at least Robin Hood had some principles!” said Mr Kharazi.

Behind Mr Mousavi’s campaign are two major figures – former President Khatami, a charismatic figure with popular appeal, and Hashemi Rafsanjani, who knows how to wield the levers of power in this complex system.

“Mr Khatami has a lot of influence amongst the people, while Mr Rafsanjani can influence the elite. People love and hate Mr Rafsanjani, but he is in a very strong position,” explained Mr Kharazi. 

It’s important not to think that the young people who told me today they were voting for change are the whole story. If Mr Mousavi wins, certainly he will try – backed by his charismatic wife, Zahra Rahnavard – to curb the morality police, manage the economy better and improve relations with the west. But the reason powerful figures in the establishment support him is because they believe that he can reform the system, not overthrow it. We are not talking about regime change, but an attempt to preserve the Islamic Revolution by modernising it.

“The leaders have realised that the continuity and stability of the government, regime and political system depend on the ballot box,” said Mr Kharazi.

We watch and wait.