Iran elections: the machinations of power

I love Iranian politics. It never fits into the simple reformist/conservative paradigm so beloved of us western reporters. It’s about complex relationships between different layers of power.

And it’s never about the people in the public eye. It’s always about Rafsanjani.

Remember him? He’s been around forever. Former President, known as “the shark”, one of the richest men in the country, head of the Expediency Council and the Council of Experts – two of Iran’s most powerful councils of mullahs – and eminence grise par excellence.

He hates Ahmadinejad, the current President. First, Ahmadinejad beat him in the 2005 Presidential elections. Secondly, Rafsanjani doesn’t like the current President’s abrasive, provocative international style. All this denying of the Holocaust and trumpeting the nuclear programme offends his diplomatic sensibilities.

He thinks Iran could have a more emollient image, without abandoning the Revolution or even the nuclear programme. He’s more interested in power than principle. If that means relaxing the dress code and talking to the Americans, well that’s just fine.

So while the religious radicals – another faction in Iran’s power elite – support Ahmadinejad for a second term, old Rafsanjani is backing Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Mousavi is often portrayed as the reformist candidate because he’s mobilised the youth with an Obama-style campaign characterised by the colour green and featuring his popular, intelligent wife. He’s gained popularity amongst women by promising to abolish the hated morality police who beat them for not wearing their headscarves properly.

But he’s also the establishment candidate, because he was Prime Minister back in the 80s, and has the backing of Rafsanjani and other members of the old guard.

That means he can win – he has support in high places. But it might make him lose. The country is polarised on pretty much all issues but this one: every Iranian I’ve ever asked says Rafsanjani is corrupt. And now President Ahmadinejad has said it openly in a live TV debate with Mousavi.

Of course, there’s also the question of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. He’s the one who holds ultimate power. We think he backs Ahmadinejad. He probably hates Rafsanjani (most people do). And we don’t know what he thinks about Mousavi. So the election could go either way.

I told you it wasn’t just about reformists and conservatives.