Iran: will they, won't they?

Last Tuesday President Ahmadinejad said Iran would export uranium to be enriched overseas and then returned for medical use only – a concession to its diplomatic enemies.

Less than a week later he says they’ll enrich it at home and the rest of the world can go hang. Who knows what he’ll say next week? By the time any government formulates a response to Iran’s latest pronouncement on nuclear policy, it’s changed again.

Is this flip-flopping a cunning plan or a sign of chaos at the heart of the Islamic Republic?

Western diplomats suggest it’s President Ahmadinejad’s faction trying to shore itself up by sending different messages to different audiences. Last week’s apparent concession gives ammunition to the Chinese, trying to hold the line against new sanctions.

If China can point to conciliatory statements or signs that Iran is complying with IAEA requests, its diplomats find it easier to counter US and European officials pushing for tougher measures against Iran.

Today’s announcement placates the hardliners within the regime who like to blow loud public raspberries to the US and Europe.

Adding in a few missile launches keeps them happy and shows the internal opposition – the biggest threat – that the government is powerful and determined.

So maybe that’s the main thing. Later this week, Green Movement protesters will be out on the streets demonstrating against the government on the 31st Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

All these contradictory nuclear pronouncements distract international attention from the regime’s biggest worry – its own divisions and weaknesses in the face of continued unrest by the opposition.