‘Israel cannot survive without US support… Netanyahu knows that’ says Nomi Bar-Yaacov

We spoke to Nomi Bar-Yaacov from Chatham House, who’s travelled the world negotiating and mediating international conflicts, to discuss the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza.

Cathy Newman: We heard from Joe Biden that he thinks peace is closer than ever. Is that a triumph of hope over experience, or could it actually happen?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: It could happen. But for that to happen, quite a number of things need to fall into the right place. On Monday, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and he’s going to present the bridging proposals to him. Netanyahu has been stalling the ceasefire and making it near impossible, or impossible thus far. To get to a ceasefire, he’s going to have to make a tough decision for him, whether to continue the war and keep his coalition government in place, or whether to do the right thing, get to a ceasefire, free the hostages and start paving a path to reconciliation and peace.

Cathy Newman: But why would he ‘do the right thing’, in your words, when it’s not in his political interest in terms of political survival?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: No, it’s not in his interest. But the question is, what is the cost rather than the leverage that the US is willing to inflict on Israel in order to make sure he signs on the dotted line? And that is the question. If President Biden, through Anthony Blinken, has worked that bit out, then Netanyahu will sign on the dotted line. Israel cannot survive without US support. Israel is 100% dependent on United States support for its own survival. And Netanyahu knows that.

Cathy Newman: You’ve been involved in these kinds of talks many times. So what would you be saying? How would you bring the two sides together?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: At the moment, it’s not a question of bringing the sides together. It’s a question of bringing each side to agree to the proposals. And if the proposals are such that no changes were made from the Biden statement on 31 May, then indeed, Hamas have already said that they would agree and that’s why they didn’t participate. So the only question is, are they going to get Netanyahu to sign? And in order to get Netanyahu to sign, they have to exert a cost that he can’t fathom. For example, if they stop, first and foremost, the two tonne bombs shipment. And it’s not only military aid, there’s trade. As I said, Israel cannot survive as a state without US support, and the Israeli prime minister knows that.

Cathy Newman: So if you were in that room, you’d be issuing a quite explicit threat, really, that the US would withdraw military support of the kind you’ve talked about if he won’t sign?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: Not only that, I think they would also increase the sanctions. They’ve already started sanctioning a small group of settlers, but I think they will sanction and threaten to sanction many, many more. Including some close allies of the prime minister.

Cathy Newman: You focus very much on Israel, but Hamas today is indicating that they think this idea of progress and hope is illusory.

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: Correct. And that’s why I said, is the question really… Hamas have said that they’re not going to change their stance, and therefore it’s very clear they have been very clear from the outset. They have been crystal clear about what they’re willing to accept and not willing to accept, and what they are not willing to accept is an Israeli presence in Gaza after the ceasefire. And what Netanyahu wants is he wants to resume the war, and that’s the main issue that needs to be bridged. That’s a question of language and finding the right language and giving a little bit of manoeuvre, for both parties, so they can start the process and really get into the nitty gritty details.

Cathy Newman: Is the pressure, the desire, to avoid a wider regional conflict focusing minds, do you think, at this stage?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: Yes, I think that is definitely focusing minds. I think they realise, I think everybody in the world that knows the area, that the Iranian threat is very serious and Hezbollah’s threat is very serious. Hezbollah has the military capability of hitting anywhere in Israel with great precision and in great depth, and they also have the capability of assassinating senior Israeli leaders. And given that Israel has assassinated very senior IRGC, Iranian Revolutionary Guard, commanders, they assassinated the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, on Iranian soil in an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound, and they assassinated the number two in Hezbollah. So they’re carrying out very, very high level assassinations. And it wouldn’t surprise me if Iran and Hezbollah would be be planning for something similar. They’re definitely planning for something different to anything we’ve seen before.

Cathy Newman: So get the deal done before that happens, is what you’d be saying to Israel?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: Exactly, yes.

Cathy Newman: You saw fresh Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah retaliating in some measure. What effect will all that have on these talks going on next week?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: I think, again, it’s a question of how you want to look at it. Some people are saying, ‘Oh, these actions are intended to thwart a deal’. But I actually think it’s because of the pressure of the deal that Israel is trying to carry out its policy to assassinate Hezbollah leaders. It’s a stated policy. I think it’s a failed policy, but that’s the policy, and that’s what they’re trying to do. They’re trying to get in as much as they can on the military side so that they can claim ‘victory’.