Israel-Hezbollah war will not happen because of the ‘consequences’ for both countries, says author

We are joined by Rami Khouri, from Boston, USA – he is a distinguished fellow at the American University of Beirut, a journalist and author.

We started by asking whether to believe Israel or Hezbollah on the accusations over who is responsible for the strike in the Golan Heights.

Rami Khouri: We don’t know. This has gone on for years. My experience in Lebanon and the Middle East is Hezbollah rarely comes out with a lie. They’re very careful about what they say. And Israel, as we’ve seen in Gaza for months, has told repeated lies and exaggerations about Hamas. So I would just wait till somebody comes up with a definitive forensic analysis. But that doesn’t really matter who did it, because there’s six or seven little, small militant groups in South Lebanon other than Hezbollah.

Alex Thomson: That’s a critical point, Rami. Not under the direct iron fist control of Hezbollah?

Rami Khouri: Yes and no. These are not scientific processes. This is a political, cultural, ethnic, historical process, and these are groups that have different kinds of relations with each other. But these small militant groups tend to be controlled by Hezbollah. Hezbollah can tell them ‘don’t fire’, or it might tell them ‘go ahead’. And then you have Palestinian groups. Hamas has a little contingent there. The Islamist Lebanese are there. So who did it is not clear. But I would argue it’s not really an essential point. They’ve been doing this, between Lebanon and Israel, and this is occupied Syrian territory that Israel occupies, this has been going on for 20 years. It occasionally flares up into a war. But it’s not going to do that this time, I’m sure, because the…

Alex Thomson: Why?

Rami Khouri: The consequences for both Israel and Lebanon would be so tremendous, given the incredible power that both of them have. I was in Lebanon in 2006, during the last major war, and we could see the destruction all over Lebanon. Bridges, water systems, communications towers that Israel did…

Alex Thomson: I was there, too, but it could happen again. What’s preventing it?

Rami Khouri: What’s preventing it is precisely the fact that Hezbollah now is even stronger than it was then. It has shown with its aerial drone videos, three videos they’ve released in the last three weeks or so, of how Hezbollah can penetrate Israel’s defences. It can attack the most sensitive targets, including Haifa port and military positions, etc. And we’ve seen them already doing this in northern Israel, they attack military posts almost at will. So the abilities of both are so great that the destruction would be massive and it would be mostly impacting civilians.

Alex Thomson: And we do have a telling track record away from Israeli propaganda as regards Gaza, that the long-term record of Benjamin Netanyahu, as Harry Fawcett was pointing out just now, is that he is actually cautious when it comes to Hezbollah slash Iran, I think we can say.

Rami Khouri: Yes and no. He is cautious in actual actions. He is a bit wild in what he says. But the Israelis have a dilemma that they’ve always depended on their military power, which has been enormous thanks to support from Britain, Germany, the United States and others over the years. But the more they have power, the more they use it, as we’re seeing in Gaza now, the more political losses they suffer. They’re isolated, they’re going to be sanctioned. They’re going to soon be like South Africa was. So military power also does not resolve political conflicts, and this is why they’re still having this tit for tat engagements with Hezbollah and others in Lebanon. So they can’t just keep boasting about their military power, because it’s not the answer. And the answer has to be a political negotiation.