Israel-Lebanon ceasefire chance ‘really high’ says Lebanese journalist

After more than a year of fighting, Israel and Hezbollah appear to be on the brink of a ceasefire deal.

The text is understood to have been agreed and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene his security cabinet tomorrow to approve the deal.

It can’t come soon enough for Lebanese civilians in Beirut, which was hit by another Israeli strike today. The Israeli bombing campaign across the country has killed more than 3,700 people as well as much of Hezbollah’s leadership.

We’re joined by Lebanese journalist and analyst Ali Rizk, an expert on Hezbollah.

Ali Rizk: From what we know thus far, I think that the deal includes a withdrawal of the Israeli forces from south Lebanon, a gradual withdrawal. The Lebanese army is going to deploy at the same time. That will be over a period of 60 days, in addition to a body which will put together an international committee to oversee the enforcement of the agreement. Now, from what we’ve read as well, the United States is going to be leading that committee. These appear to be the main outlines, the broader lines of the agreement. It does appear that this time, chances are really high that we will see an end to the fighting. And I think that, by the way, the civilian suffering has been on both sides. It’s true that it’s been heavier on the Lebanese side. But yesterday in particular, there was a heavy missile barrage by Hezbollah with about 4 million Israeli people having to go down to bomb shelters. So I think that it’s an appropriate timing for both the Lebanese and the Israeli civilians and, more importantly, I think for Hezbollah as a military organisation and for the Israeli military itself, which is also in a state of exhaustion, despite the fact that it has inflicted some big tactical blows against Hezbollah.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Well, I mean, you say that, but isn’t this, in truth, a humiliating defeat for Hezbollah? I mean, you know, its military leadership has been killed. Its operations have been largely destroyed. Huge amounts of destruction has happened across Lebanon. And the final result is effectively the 2006 UN resolution, which is Hezbollah back above the Litani River and a ceasefire. What has it achieved, all of this?

Ali Rizk: Well, I think that if you look at what happened yesterday, despite this very heavy Israeli onslaught, which you’re referring to, Hezbollah was able to launch over 200 missiles much deeper than it had before. This is after the heavy blows which were dealt against it. So I think you can’t speak about a humiliating Hezbollah defeat. That would be rather inaccurate.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Most of those missiles get shot down. If you’re seeing this as sort of, ‘we’ve inflicted damage on them and they’ve inflicted damage on us’. I mean, the scale is not even comparable. It’s been an extraordinary devastation in Lebanon. And, yes, it’s been difficult in northern Israel and people had to leave their homes. But Hezbollah hasn’t achieved very much militarily at all.

Ali Rizk: Look, when you speak about military confrontation, wars are not won by bombing civilian areas, okay? You can bomb civilians. True, they cause immense destruction, but has that undermined the missile capability of Hezbollah? Judging from what happened yesterday, it hasn’t severely undermined. Again, they’ve dealt some very strong tactical blows, but the missile barrage is continuing. Hezbollah has fighters that put up a very strong fight in the south. The Israelis have had very big difficulties in advancing. There are very big losses within the ranks of the Israeli military. And if you bomb civilian areas or civilian neighbourhoods, that doesn’t make any difference. That doesn’t win wars again. This terrorises civilians, indeed. But it doesn’t do much when it comes to fighting wars, scoring some big points in the broader confrontation. Now 1701 if you allow me, 1701 has been Hezbollah’s position from the start. They said we will agree to Resolution 1701 without any additions, without any amendments. Whether it was the Israelis who wanted an amendment of 1701… For quite a while, they’ve been pushing for Unifil to operate, according to Chapter seven of the UN charter, which gives the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces the ability to use force. And that hasn’t happened. So I think that both sides have been forced to make concessions, to bow down to reality. If you want any proof that not all the Israelis are satisfied, look at what [Itamar] Ben-Gvir is saying. He is coming out very strongly against the agreement. Look at what Avigdor Lieberman is saying. Look at what the Israeli residents in the north, what they’re saying. So to say that one side has been defeated and one side is winning. I think that’s not a very accurate description.