Lasting legacies and passing tragedies?

It has become quite fashionable to say 911 didn’t really change the world. A rash of commentary has recently argued that the decade of al- Qaeda, while bloody and terrible, will not have the future consequences we may once have feared.war

The argument runs: The world changed, the centre of economic gravity changed, the role and power of America in the world changed but much of it happened regardless of the “war on terror” and the clash of civilisations will never quite happen – especially now Bin Laden is dead.

This makes for clever columns but seems ultimately rather unhelpful. The need to understand what has changed seems greater than ever before anyone claims victory and moves on, just because the troops are coming home from Afghanistan.

Beyond the long series of terrorist attacks from Bali, Madrid, Mumbai and London – all on a continuum from Bin Laden’s September spectacular – there is a change in the way we think.

Even now, when we hear of an explosion or gun attack – as we did in Norway – most of us instantly think of Islamic militancy. 911 has changed our sense of who our enemies are.

So many crimes are now related to terror – so much police time, so many intelligence officers, so many courts filled with suspects. So many instances of cultural tension and blatant racism stem from the suspicions, paranoias and fears that grew from 911.

Are these things historical blips that will fade with time? Or something more profound?

Equally, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did not just change regimes at huge human expense they had a massive and lasting impact on politics, our view of ourselves and our leaders.

Would Barack Obama have been elected if there hadn’t been such a reaction against George Bush? Would Britain’s liberals have turned on Tony Blair the way so many did in the end? Would we have had a view of intervention more framed by the patchy success of the Balkans and our guilt over Rwanda than by our often confused and conflicted view of the 911 wars?

The Taliban may have an office of sorts in Qatar, Bin Laden may be dead and it might feel as though al-Qaeda is less powerful today at destabilising us than it was. The Arab Spring may offer a more hopeful Middle East and the occupants of Downing Street and the White House may seem less keen on pre-emptive military action than their predecessors.

But the truth is we do not know whether this is a pause for breath, the end of a chapter or the beginning of the end.

Our best hope might be to simply use the time to take a look at ourselves and understand what has changed, and how much of it we like.