By any measure it’s been a grim day for the Conservatives – they lost the by-election for an MP in Blackpool South thanks to a massive swing to Labour, they’re on track to lose around half of the local election council seats they contested and their projected national vote share is down to a dismal 25%.
But in a triumph of expectation management Rishi Sunak looks safe from a leadership challenge this weekend after Ben Houchen held on to his job as the Tory mayor of Tees Valley.