Algeria crisis prompts fears for heightened terror in Mali

The name Mokhtar Belmokhtar inspires terror in Mali. The one-eyed jihadi held reponsible for the attack on the In Amenas gas plant in Algeria has been operating in the deserts of northern Mali for 10 years, getting rich from drug-smuggling and ransoms paid by European governments after the kidnap of their nationals.

“It’s terrible that hostages died in Algeria,” said Colonel Seydu Sanogo of the Malian army. “But imagine if these people managed to set themselves up properly here. There would be consequences for the international community, not just for Mali. How many people would be killed after that?”

Colonel Sanogo and his men were preparing themselves in Niono, a small, dishevelled town 50 miles from the frontline in Diabaly which was taken by the jihadis 10 days ago. French aircraft bombed rebel encampments and convoys around Diabaly all last week.

French intervention ‘a godsend’

To Malians, French intervention is a godsend, which has saved them from a jihadi takeover of the whole country. The debacle in In Amenas may be an unintended consequence, but many say it proves the case for taking on the jihadis rather than allowing them to consolidate their hold on Mali.

“What happened in Algeria is a manifestation of what we fear in Mali,” said Seydu Traore, the prefect of Niono. “After Mali, it can happen elsewhere.”

Malian soldiers dropped their weapons and fled last year when the jihadis, fighting at that time alongside Tuareg separatists, seized the northern Malian towns of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu. They say they face a fearsome enemy. Some criticise Algeria for failing to stop jihadis like Belmokhtar from crossing the border to get food, fuel and other supplies, including possibly arms.

What happened in Algeria is a manifestation of what we fear in Mali. Seydu Traore, prefect of Niono

“They’re really heavily armed. I don’t know how they managed to get those weapons. They’re the most sophisticated in the world,” said Colonel Sanogo. “I saw hundreds of vehicles driving around in the north of Mali. There are no petrol stations there, so how did they get the supply line?”

The leaders of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM), the group that controls northern Mali, are Algerian nationals. Belmokhtar fought first in Afghanistan and then with the Islamic Fighting Group in Algeria’s civil war in the 1990s. Teaming up with Malian jihadis who call themselves Ansar Dine (Defenders of the Faith) and the Movement for Unity and Jihad (MUJAO), they have amputated the limbs of suspected thieves, forced women to wear the veil and destroyed ancient mud shrines in Timbuktu.

Fleeing from terror

Nearly half a million Malians fled the north in the last year, some crossing into Mauritania and Burkina Faso, others staying with relatives in southern Mali. People arriving in Niono said they had fled Diabaly in terror.

“They destroyed our houses. They did everything,” said Maya Koussa, weeping as she limped away from the truck which had brought her and some 50 others. She and her children had run for more than 20 miles through the bush overnight before the truck picked them up.

Mamadou Sogadougou had commandeered the truck from the construction project where he worked near Diabaly, fearing both the jihadis and the French bombing.

“We came across many people on the road so we put some in the back and some in the cab,” he said. Amongst the jihadis who had occupied the town, he added, were teenagers.

“I couldn’t tell their age, I could just see their size, he said. “It was clear they were very young people. Some were too small even to carry their own backpacks.” Other reports from northern Mali have talked of child soldiers manning road blocks.

Mr Sogadougou said that most of the rebels were light-skinned Arabs whom he believed to be foreigners, not Malian Arabs who tend to have darker skin. Driving on the main road he had passed two pick-up trucks full of bodies, which he thought were jihadis killed by nightly French air-strikes.

French forces

“The impact of our strikes is very important because it has stopped any advance on all fronts,” he said. The French are now preparing for a second phase, which will involve French, Malian and other African troops on the ground.

In Markala, south of Niono, a French marine unit has established a base alongside the Malian military in their barracks. According to a French officer, who would give his name only as “Lt-Col Frederic”, their presence is designed to prevent the jihadis from coming down the River Niger or crossing the bridge which spans it.

The fear is that many jihadis will have melted into the bush only to return in a few months time as guerrillas

The fear is that many jihadis will have melted into the bush only to return in a few months time as guerrillas. Just before the bridge at Markala, Malian soldiers were checking the bags and documents of every passenger on a bus. Having been stopped from mounting an attack on the Malian capital, Bamako, the Islamists may turn to terror tactics, setting off bombs in cities and planting improvised explosive devices on routes used by the French and Malian military.

They may also carry out their threat to kill some or all of the eight French hostages they hold in northern Mali. Four were seized from a French-run uranium mine in Niger in 2010, while the others were taken at different times in northern Mali or near the border with Mauritania. The jihadis have been weakened by the French campaign, but they have been preparing for months, hoping to turn French public opinion against what may turn out to be a risky and costly adventure.

A version of this article appeared in today’s Sunday Times.