The Israel-Palestinian conflict has been simmering as usual while the world has been distracted by last year’s Arab Spring and its repercussions. But the changes in the region affect Israel and the Palestinians too
Israel attacks Gaza, killing two militants and several Palestinian civilians. Palestinian militants in Gaza respond by firing rockets into Israel. This weekend’s violence, which has thus far killed 21 and wounded 64 Palestinians, while leaving three Israelis wounded, has followed a well-worn pattern.
But beneath the surface, things are shifting. The Israel-Palestinian conflict has been simmering as usual while the world has been distracted by last year’s Arab Spring and its repercussions. But the changes in the region affect Israel and the Palestinians too.
Hamas, which governs Gaza, was originally an offshoot of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. While President Mubarak was in power, the brotherhood was suppressed, and Egyptian policy was largely subject to Israeli influence, because of the peace deal signed in 1979.
Now, following last year’s uprising, the peace agreement remains but the Egyptian parliament is dominated by the brotherhood, who are in a much better position to help their colleagues in Gaza. The Qataris and Saudis are also sympathetic to the Gazans, who – like them – are Sunni Muslims.
Until recently, Hamas maintained its headquarters in the Syrian capital, Damascus. But their leader-in-exile, Khaled Meshaal, has now shifted to Qatar. It was growing increasingly difficult for Hamas to maintain support for Assad, as his forces – mainly Alawites, who are a branch of Shi’a Islam – killed thousands of Syria’s Sunni Muslims. Hamas risked ending up on the wrong side of history, of going down as a group which betrayed their fellow Sunnis.
That leaves them in a difficult position with regard to Iran, which supports both the Syrian government and Hamas. Until now, sect hasn’t been the deciding factor – Shi’a Iran supported Assad because he was anti-western and Hamas because they were anti-Israel.
The Israeli government presents its conflict with the Palestinians as part of a wider regional dispute between Israel -representing democracy and western values – and Iran, representing Islamism, extremism, and everything the west fears. Now Hamas may be shifting away from Iran, and towards Egypt and the Gulf countries, which are western allies.
That makes Israel uncomfortable – as long as Hamas can be defined as Iran’s proxy, there’s no question of being pushed into negotiations over the issues which are really at the root of the conflict with the Palestinians: land, settlements, borders, Jerusalem and the return of Palestinian refugees. But if Hamas were to cut or at least loosen ties to Iran, and move closer to countries which the west supports, that will make more people question the Israeli narrative.
The Israeli and Palestinian propaganda machines are in full flow. The Israelis claim that they had good reason to restart attacks at this time; Hamas pretends it’s united, when regional changes are tearing the movement apart. But before you switch off the TV, thinking you’ve seen it all before, remember that everything is in flux now, and neither side can control the outside forces shaping history.
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