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25 Dec 2011

New setback for Gingrich

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The former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has suffered another blow to his Presidential hopes: he’s failed to get on the ballot for the Republican primary in his own state, writes Felicity Spector.

Newt Gingrich, in Iowa (Reuters)

Mr Gingrich, along with the former Texas Governor Rick Perry, failed to get the neccessary 10,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot. Gingrich’s campaign chief, Michael Krull, described it as a ‘failed system’, and said they’d try to launch a write-in campaign to get his name on the list of candidates. Although Gingrich has been leading the opinion polls there, his team won’t get much joy from a write-in campaign – they’re not legally permitted in Virginia primaries.

Just four days ago, at a rally in Arlington, Gingrich had declared he had enough signatures to qualify, insisting “We’re going to disappoint the Republican establishment, because tomorrow in Virginia we’re going to turn in vastly more signatures than the rest.”

Slapdash campaign

His failure to make good reveals the slapdash nature of his campaign, in sharp contrast with the former Masschussetts governor Mitt Romney whose highly well funded machine is proving its staying power.

In fact, just ten days before the first voting in the Republican contest – the Iowa caucuses – it reveals that perhaps Gingrich couldn’t get away with a presidential effort which lacks not just money, but any kind of coherent, nationwide organisation.

In Iowa, the Democratic strategy firm Anzalone Liszt Reseach said Romney and his supporters had managed to outspend Gingrich by an overhwelming 34 to 1 this week. Although Romney’s unlikely to win in this somewhat maverick state – polls currently suggest Ron Paul could be in the lead, a solid showing would put him in a far healthier place to mop up in his far more comfortable territory of New Hampshire.

I never said I’d come first in Iowa. Newt Gingrich

So has a series of negative ads brought the simmering doubts about Gingrich to the surface, or are voters simply tiring of a man who comes with a whole lot more baggage than most putative presidential nominees? There’s evidence in Iowa, at least, that it’s his personality proving a stumbling block – one voter asking him straight out this week, whether he thought he was arrogant. “I work very hard”, he replied, “and I am assertive.” The voter wasn’t wholly convinced.

Read more: The rise and rise of Newt Gingrich

Personal baggage

Gingrich is, after all, the man who brought the US Government to gridlock in the 1990’s – and was fined $300,000 by the House ethics committee over his behaviour. He’s described critics within his own party as “cannibals” and “morons”, putting some of his wilder debate pronouncements down to the fact that he sometimes forgets he’s not a political analyst any more, but a candidate.

And he’s been busy talking down expectations, insisting this week “I never said I’d come first in Iowa”. The fact that he declared all this at a rally in Virginia where only a handful of people showed up, says far more. After a brief festive break, Gingrich will head back to Iowa, for an eight day bus tour through 44 cities, his confidence undiminished.

Fading star

But just days before the first real votes in the primary race, it’s a little late for faux-pologies.

A new poll for the Boston Globe shows more evidence that the Gingrich surge has peaked – in New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney is the clear front runner, Gingrich is now tying a distant second with Ron Paul. And the trends show it’s Paul who’s got the momentum on his side, while the Gingrich star is fading fast.

Even self-declared Tea Party supporters in the Granite State aren’t swinging behind Gingrich – and 20 per cent of voters declared they wouldn’t support him under any circumstances.

With poll numbers like that, it’s hard to see how even the irrepressible Newt can turnaround his flagging fortunes. By the time the March primaries, including Virginia, come around, whether he’s got his name on the ballot or not, may make very little difference.

Felicity Spector is the US politics expert for Channel 4 News. Follow her on Twitter @felicityspector

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