North Korea: beware of the bluster
Talk of all-consuming hell-fire and nuclear war sounds grim. But North Korea’s violent sabre-rattling must be viewed in context.
As news stories go, this one seems to be travelling in one direction.
Today North Korea prevented South Koreans from crossing the border to work in a jointly operated industrial park – this the only symbol of north-south cooperation we are told.
On Tuesday, North Korea announced plans to restart a nuclear reactor as part of its weapons program – and you are probably familiar with the blood-curdling threats, the abandoned hotlines and a number of shredded agreements as well.
Yet there are a host of good reasons why war will almost certainly be avoided.
1. Playing it cool in South Korea
Nobody in Seoul seems particularly worried – and they are the ones in the firing line. The South Korean media dutifully reports the north’s apocalyptical threats but the public have heard it all before. Investors are not rushing for the exits either – the South Korean stock market posted modest gains last month.
2. Threats – or threats to retaliate?
The threat of all-consuming hell-fire and nuclear war sounds grim, but they are often quoted out of context.
This from BR Myers, who spoke to the New York Times:
“We need to keep in mind that North and South Korea are not so much trading outright threats as trading blustering vows of how they would retaliate if attacked. The north says, ‘If the U.S. or South Korea dare infringe on our territory we will reduce their territory to ashes,’ and Seoul responds by saying it will retaliate by bombing Kim Il-sung statues. And so it goes.”
3. North Korean priorities
The regime needs food and basic supplies. A war with its enemies may win the temporary approval of its people, but it is going to make it even harder to feed them. Here’s two extracts from the 2012 UN national nutrition survey for North Korea, released two weeks ago.
“…nearly 28 per cent of children under five suffer from chronic malnutrition and four per cent are acutely malnourished.”
And it’s not just food.
“Health care services and supplies are unable to meet basic needs. Infrastructure including water and heating systems need repair as education facilities are rapidly deteriorating.”
4. North Korea needs money
A series of new UN resolutions have made it more difficult for the regime to get its hands on foreign currency. Restrictions on trade, on bank transfers, on arms and the purchase of luxury goods have ratcheted up the pain. The Americans claim they will, “bite and bite hard.”
Interestingly, US officials think they would have a bigger problem on their hands if the Kim family ran a country that was self-sufficient and able to provide for itself.
5. North Korea’s only friend is getting irritated
China seems to be getting fed up with the regime. It clearly dislikes Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme and it says war on the Korean peninsula must be avoided. How irritated China is willing to get with North Korea is unclear however – it’s unlikely to want to see the collapse of its impoverished neighbour.
6. Practice makes perfect
North Korea’s got pedigree – it manufactures crises to bring its enemies to the table. Analysts point out that the regime has engineered some form of military provocation after the inauguration of every new South Korean president since 1992 (new president Park Geun-hye was inaugurated last month), and the regime has a decent record at willing concessions from their arch enemies.
So there, feel any better?
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