Sarah Smith blogs on one year from Obama’s anniversary of his election and what polls matter now.
This time last year there were queues around the block outside polling stations all over America as people scrambled get into early voting to cast their votes for Obama.
Tomorrow, November 4th, marks the first anniversary of his election. And today Americans are at the polls again. So it’s perhaps inevitable that some people are saying today’s vote is referendum on Obama’s first year in office.
Those people are mostly Republicans who think they are about to have a good day and will be able to claim it shows that the president is failing. Not surprisingly the White House, who don’t expect they will have much to celebrate tonight, are saying that these elections have nothing to do with Obama at all – even though he has been pretty visible in helping to campaign for some of the Democratic candidates
The real mid terms happen next year when all of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate will be up for re-election, along with dozens of governors and mayors This year – an “off year” in the jargon – sees just a few key ballots but they will be watched very carefully anyway.
There are three races its worth checking the results of when you wake up tomorrow:
New Jersey
If Governor John Corzine wins re-election in New Jersey the Democrats will be very relieved.
He’s been struggling against a heavyweight Republican opponent who had a double digit lead in the polls until Corzine started spending large amounts money on TV ads making fun of his opponent’s rather large waistline with lines like “Christopher Christie. He’s been throwing his weight around”.
Corzine has spent over $100m of his own money on this campaign so losing would really hurt – but his wealth just reminds voters that he got rich as a former Chief Exec of Goldman Sachs and no one likes Wall Street these days.
Virginia
Virginia is the most likely to deliver bad news for Obama. It was big news a year ago when he became the first Democratic nominee to win that state in a Presidential election since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But it doesn’t look like the Dems will be able to win the governorship this year.
All those new voters in Virginia’s Northern suburbs who registered to vote for Obama last year simply aren’t motivated to come out and vote for the Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds. He hasn’t run a very good campaign and the advance spin from Democrats in DC seems to be that if he’d listened more to White House advice he might be in better shape. That’s one way to explain why they couldn’t hold onto Virginia for even a year.
New York 23rd District
But however bad the news is from Virginia Democrat are already sniggering about what’s happening in the race for a House of Representatives seat in upstate New York.
The Republicans had chosen a very moderate candidate to run in the 23rd District. Dede Scozzafava was exactly the kind of pro-abortion, pro-gay rights reformer that Republican party bosses think is required to win back all those swing voters who swung to Obama last year.
But she was called a RINO (Republican In Name Only) by so many in her district that a Conservative Independent candidate, supported by Sarah Palin, was polling better than her.
At the weekend Scozzafava not only suddenly dropped out, she even endorsed her democratic opponent.
The far-right are delighted. They say it proves there is no point in compromising their ideals to accommodate moderate candidates.
While the Democrats are convinced that if only the Republican party do cede control to the Sarah Palin/ Glenn Beck/ Rush Limbaugh wing of the party then a second term in the White House for Obama is all but guaranteed