The polls are narrowing as Barack Obama prepares to face Mitt Romney in their second debate. And if the president fails to deliver a knockout win, his political life is at risk.
Mitt Romney is on a roll: his political momentum is sweeping all before it. One by one, polls suggest that key battleground states are tumbling like ninepins, as the leads Obama has enjoyed for months simply melt away.
Latest polls show Romney is now forging ahead among likely voters in a swathe of states, and snapping at Obama’s heels in Virginia and New Hampshire. Even in Pennsylvania, where the GOP has barely spent a penny on advertising, an Obama lead of 12 has slumped to just four.
And most worryingly for the president, one of his core constituencies, women, seem to be defecting to the Republican cause. A USA Today/Gallup poll, heavily slated by the Democrats, actually shows the pair tied among likely women voters in swing states.
To ram home that potentially critical advantage, Karl Rove’s financial juggernaut, American Crossroads, is spending $11m on a new advertising campaign aimed at women, which will air in eight battleground states from today. “My family can’t afford another four years like this,” runs the theme.
He’s excited, he’s calm, and he’s energised! Jen Psaki, Obama campaign spokeswoman
All of which means you can expect a big pitch to this year’s key voter, the blue-collar “waitress mom”, to feature prominently in the second presidential debate tonight, as Obama faces the fight of his political life.
He has spent the last three days closeted with advisers and aides in the Virginian lakeside resort of Kingsmill, practising his tactics and rehearsing his debate points. His team have been talking a good game, trying as best they can to hide the naked desperation in their voices.
“He’s looking forward to it, he’s excited. he’s calm and energised,” insisted campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki, while chief strategist David Axelrod took to Twitter to declare: “POTUS is ready for a vigorous debate and Q’s from all comers!”
Quite frankly, Obama could scarcely do worse than his dismal performance in the first debate with Romney: in one single swoop, he managed to wipe out months of gains, dent his own image, and hand a golden opportunity to Mitt Romney to sieze the baton and keep running. Which so far, he has.
This time, Democrats say they’re determined the president will be far better prepared, and willing to challenge Romney on all the issues he so spectacularly failed to even mention a fortnight ago. Instead of that rather passive indifference, some actual fire.
The format this time, a town hall-style debate with an audience of undecided voters gathered specially for the occasion by Gallup, ought to favour Obama. The audience will be allowed to ask the questions, although moderator Candy Crowley will have the chance to add follow-ups.
Team Obama have already hinted the president will be “firm, but respectful”. In reality, it’s a difficult balancing act for both men to attack each other without seeming hostile towards the audience.
Obama has proven himself slightly more comfortable in town-hall style settings than his multi-millionaire opponent, able to steer questions around to the subject he really wants to talk about. He is capable, at his best, of engaging fairly naturally with voters in the room.
On the flip side, a strategy which requires an attack on Romney’s character and constant questions about his record could look overly aggressive in so small an arena.
Hillary Clinton, who debated Obama during the primaries in 2008, had a few words of advice, even as she took the fall for the administration’s damaging failure over the death of the US ambassador to Libya in Benghazi.
“He just needs to be himself and answer the questions, and get out there and tell people – not just those in the audience, but in our country – what he has done, and what he will do.”
In other words, what every Democrat has been screaming for since that last, lacklustre debate where Obama seemed to be sleepwalking into the jaws of defeat: show us your vision! Remind us, again what you became president for.
There is no shortage of celebrity supporters behind him: the big guns, in the form of Bruce Springsteen, have been deployed on the campaign trail, while Hollywood stars Scarlett Johansson, Eva Longoria and Kerry Washington appear in an ad for MoveOn.org directed by Rob Reiner, attacking Republican attitudes towards abortion and rape.
But it is ordinary voters in the spotlight tonight. The kind of debate where anything could come up, from the sins of Wall Street to the price of a pint of milk. A format which encourages the candidates to walk around, interact with the audience, mix it up a bit.
Mitt Romney, whose campaign has won this miraculous second chance, merely has to keep going, to fight this one to a draw, although he needs to prove he can connect with ordinary Americans, and perhaps, to offer more actual specifics.
Obama, though: he needs a convincing win. Not just landing those killer punches on Romney’s record, either, but a positive vision of what he’s got to offer.
A cast of dozens are on standby to flood the spin room, post debate: but it won’t be their verdict that matters. Leave that to the tens of millions who will be tuning in, looking for substantive policies, perhaps; or, more likely, the body language which signifies confidence, aggression, defeat.
In the final hours, some optimism from both camps. Mitt Romney won the coin-toss, and gets to answer the first question tonight. President Obama, as he took a breather from his intensive debate prep, told a reporter: “I feel fabulous. Look at this beautiful day.”
The same reporter also broke the astonishing news that Michelle Obama cast her vote yesterday – for her husband. “Thank goodness,” fired back Obama. That is one vote he need not worry about. The others? Tonight could decide everything.
Felicity Spector writes about US affairs for Channel 4 News