Obama: from spectator to peace envoy?

When the moment demands it President Obama can usually come up with a beautiful turn of phrase. His rhetoric rises to the occasion. “It was the moral force of nonviolence… that bent the arc of history toward justice once more.” He said.

Inspirational stuff, from a man who had been very careful about what he said in support of the Egyptian protestors until he knew that President Mubarak had definitely gone.

You could practically hear the huge sigh of relief inside the White House when it was finally announced that Mubarak was stepping down. The last 18 days have been very difficult for president Obama as US policy toward the revolution in Egypt has seemed clumsy and confused. Often apparently putting the interests of the US and its other allies in the Middle East ahead of the right to freedom and democracy that was being demanded by the protestors.

“There are very moments in our lives where we have the privilege to witness history taking place.” Obama said. “This is one of those moments. This is one of those times.”

And its true Obama was reduced to a spectator as events played out in Cairo. He had no more idea that Mubarak was about to step down than any of the rest of us. Even the CIA have been forced to admit they have been getting their news from watching TV. The US were not controlling or even influencing events inside Egypt. They were just watching them.

Now he knows the outcome Obama is happy to say that “Egyptians have made it clear that nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day”. He knows it’s time to get on the right side of history. But the truth is that there is no one inside the White house or anywhere in policy circles in Washington who thinks that the next government of Egypt will be anything like as sympathetic to US interests as president Mubarak was. The US has lost an important ally in the Middle East.

“The lesson is that we should have been more concerned about the democratic rights of the Egyptian people”. So said Martin Indyk on Channel 4 News on Friday night. It seems like a very obvious thing to say now. But just three weeks ago no one in Washington was much concerned about helping democracy flourish in Egypt.

In fact, the Obama administration has slashed US funding for pro-democracy and good governance groups in Egypt over the last two years, preferring to give most their aid to Egypt directly to the military.

As a former US ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk knows exactly why the US has always previously chosen to support the dictatorial Mubarak over the rights of his disenfranchised people. Because Mubarak was a good friend to Israel.

The external peace he provided was enough for America to ignore the internal oppression. Israelis are now extremely nervous about what will happen next in Egypt. Will a new government honour the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel? Will they continue to police the border between Egypt and Gaza as enthusiastically as Mubarak’s security forces did?

Obama will need to address what the potential consequences might be for the rest of the Middle East

Over the next few days and weeks Obama will have to try and soothe jitters in Tel Aviv as well as in Amman and Riyadh. The Jordanians and the Saudis don’t like what has happened in Egypt much more than the Israelis do and for the last few days they have all been making their feelings known, forcefully, to President Obama.

As one wise commentator pointed out “The repercussions now depend on what the US administration says to the Israelis and a host of Arab princes, emirs and presidents. Suffice it to say, it is time for President Obama to earn his Nobel Peace Prize”