Lindsey Hilsum looks at President Ahmadinejad’s apparent change of strategy about allowing Iranian uranium to be enriched elsewhere
Iran is doing its bit for space exploration. The Islamic Republic’s extra-terrestrial ambitions are carried on the shoulders of a mouse, two turtles and a handful of worms (do worms have shoulders?) launched into space this morning inside an “experimental biological capsule” in the Explorer 3 rocket.So what’s the experiment? The first American mice went into space in the 1950s. Since then, sundry Russian, Japanese and Chinese creatures have gone into orbit, including bullfrogs, monkeys, fish, twin spiders named Anita and Arabella, and a newt. (Sadly, not all lived to tell the tale.)
The experiment is to see how the world will react. Will Iran get the recognition as a “great nation” which its government thinks it deserves? Will its neighbours be impressed? Or cowed into submission? Will the Americans take Iran more seriously?
Israel and the Arab countries across the Persian Gulf see all such experiments as threatening, because they indicate that Iran has missiles which could strike them, and that, of course, is also the point.
The standard diplomatic word for these regular missile launches is “provocative”, but the provocation is tempered today by seemingly conciliatory remarks from President Ahmadinejad.
Iran is running out of medical isotopes, needed for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. Last September, international diplomats in Geneva were very excited by the suggestion that the Islamic Republic could export its low-enriched uranium to France, where it would be enriched to 20%, and re-imported to use for medical purposes. The idea was that this would create confidence, as well as taking Iran’s low enriched uranium out of the country for a few months so it could not be highly enriched for a bomb.
The Iranians said no. But now, President Ahmadinejad has said, maybe. Or even, why not? There are a number of explanations for this apparent change in policy. First, it could be that Iran’s nuclear programme is going so badly they think they might as well. Second, it could be a stalling ploy – getting the IAEA and everyone back onto this side issue might delay further UN sanctions. Or thirdly, it could be that President Ahmadinejad is speaking for himself and his faction of the government, not the hardliners within the Revolutionary Guard who most observers believe are now in the ascendant.
Or maybe it’s just another experiment to see how everyone will react. Like a turtle in space.