Oscar Pistorius verdict due: what to expect

It has been just over a month since the closing arguments in the murder trial were delivered by the two titans of the South African courtroom.

Since then, crime reporter turned judge Thokozile Masipa has been mulling over the reams of evidence with her two assessors, and will start delivering her verdict on Thursday.

It is no exaggeration to say that the world will be watching – the trial was the first to be live-streamed and broadcast online – with all ears on the verdict, which is expected to be delivered by Friday.

VIDEO: The Oscar Pistorius trial - in 90 seconds

Premeditated murder

The Paralympian was charged with premeditated murder after shooting his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp dead on 14 February 2013.

Prosecutor Gerrie Nel, known as the “pitbull”, argued throughout the trial that Pistorius was hot-tempered and said that all the evidence suggested that he deliberately murdered Steenkamp after an argument. He said witnesses heard a woman screaming and that Steenkamp had packed her bags to leave in the middle of the night.

This is something that Pistorius and his defence team strenuously deny. Lead defence advocate Barry Roux said that some witnesses were too far away, others were unreliable, and that the screaming came from Pistorius himself, whose voice was high pitched because he was so terrified.

To be found guilty of this charge, the judge needs to believe that Pistorius had “malice aforethought”: that he knew Steenkamp, 29, was in the toilet and intended to kill her when he fired his gun. He would then face a 25-year prison sentence, but this could be reduced if the judge is convinced of mitigating arguments.

Murder

If found guilty of the lesser charge of murder, Pistorius would be sentenced to 15 years in prison. In this case, the judge would need to be convinced beyond reasonable doubt that the Paralympian fired his gun intending to kill whoever he thought was behind the toilet door – whether it was a burglar or his girlfriend – but in the heat of the moment.

Pistorius, the only person who really knows what happened, has always maintained that he thought a burglar had broken into his house and fired his gun in what he thought was self-defence.

Again, the sentence could be reduced even if he is found guilty of murder, if the judge is convinced of mitigating circumstances.

Culpable homicide

Similar to the charge of “manslaughter” in the UK, the charge of culpable homicide removes any intention from the action of murder. If Pistorius is found guilty of this charge, the judge would have accepted Mr Roux’s argument and Pistorius’s own testimony: that he did not intend to kill, regardless of who was behind the toilet door.

Throughout the trial, the defence painted a picture of Pistorius as a terrified man, cowed by traumatic experiences and by living as a double amputee. In the final days of the trial, the defence appeared to be trying to suggest that Pistorius did not recall even firing the gun.

Culpable homicide usually carries a sentence of 15 years, but this could be reduced to a community-type sentence, without any time in prison, depending on how much the judge holds Pistorius responsible for the incident.

Acquittal

After looking at all the evidence, the judge could find Pistorius clear Pistorius of the charges against him and he would walk out of the courtroom.

Other charges

During the trial, a number of witnesses were called relating to other, unrelated firearms charges that allegedly happened before Steenkamp’s murder: firing a gun in a restaurant, firing a gun out of a car sunroof, and the illegal possession of ammunition.

Regardless of the verdict handed down on Thursday, it is likely to be appealed by either the defence or prosecution if either disagrees with it. Even after the four months of the trial, and over a year and a half after Steenkamp was killed, the trial could last even longer.