Pakistan elections: building back democracy

Pakistan’s troubles are well documented, but here is a reminder of the challenges: one in three of its 160 million people live in poverty. Half of adults – including two out of three women – are illiterate. One in 11 children die before their fifth birthday, and 12,000 women die during childbirth every year.

Almost half of children under five suffer from stunted growth, which can affect brain development. Pakistan has one of the highest numbers of street children anywhere in the world, with an average age of nine. Most will die before their 18th birthday.

I have spent several months in Pakistan over the last few years and met many people working in education, culture, journalism and welfare. There is broadly a consensus from these people on three positive developments, outlined below, which, if continued, offer a positive route for the long-suffering people of Pakistan.

History

Despite many failures, the last government served a full term leading to these elections, the first democratic transfer of power in Pakistan’s 66-year history since partition from India, uninterrupted by a military coup. Critics say all the last government did was survive and cling to power.

The 18th amendment act passed by Pakistan’s last parliament is an important step in democratic decentralisation away from the Punjabi elite’s domination of the country.

There is a fledgling peace process with India underway, to allow normalisation of relations, trade, resource-sharing and travel.

21st century elections

These elections are a very different proposition from our own in Britain. The campaign trail and electoral process in Pakistan throw up unique challenges and scenarios.

It is not democracy with a wholly fair and free vote in many parts of Pakistan. “Feudal” here is not a quaint word linked to tales of Robin Hood.

Pakistan has real-life Sherriff John characters, controlling vast estates, able to commandeer vote banks from poor communities to secure seats in parliament, trading terms between different political parties to get the best deals in return for the vote bank.

All the main political parties, especially the two largest, the Pakistan People Party and The Pakistan Muslim League, are involved in this process.

Symbolic struggle

Symbols matter. Recall the arguments during the last British general elections, the TV debates and battles between the three parties as they set out their arguments.

In Pakistan the parties fought when Pakistan’s election commission allocated the symbols on the ballot paper with images such as a book and scales hotly fought over. Symbols are crucial in a country where one in three is illiterate.

This is an election where old meets new. Pakistan is urbanising fast with Karachi and Lahore now huge metropolises.

This is an election where old meets new. Pakistan is urbanising fast, with Karachi and Lahore now huge metropolises.

There is an enormous commercial media sector in Pakistan, including multiple cable TV channels with audiences of many millions, covering the elections with rolling news and debates.

Message of hope

There is also the emergence of the charismatic former cricketer and hospital building-philanthropist Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party, with a strong challenge to the existing parties.

Half the population is under 25 and may not vote according to previous norms of regional or caste loyalties, especially in the growing urban centres – something Imran is acutely aware of and working hard to change with an Obama-style message of change and frantic schedule of campaigning at public rallies.

Half the population is under 25 and may not vote, something Imran is working hard to change Obama style message of hope.

In the last days of campaigning, at a rally in Lahore, there was another dramatic development: Imran was rushed to hospital with a head wound and injured back on Tuesday. He fell off a small platform attached to a forklift truck, lifting him onto a stage. Thankfully, it appears he has suffered no serious injuries.

It is unclear what this will do to his campaign, but the impact will probably not negatively affect his support. He may gather some extra votes for his words from his hospital bed, urging people to vote, and for his commitment to serving Pakistan.

There is also hope that increased turnout of women voters, especially in cities, may help women candidates. These factors all mean the election is hard to call and quite open.

Pakistan’s Nick Clegg?

A likely outcome could be a slim majority for the Pakistan Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif, as the Pakistan People Party, led by President Zardari, is widely seen as having disappointed in power.

This is by no means clear-cut, as there is bedrock of support for the PPP, especially in the Sindh area around Karachi. It is unclear if the arrival of Imran Khan will transfer into mass support, especially with the demographic of young urban voters.

If it does, he could become a major player, and he seems to have some momentum. He could be a Pakistani Nick Clegg in a coalition.

Why voting matters

This, again, is not straightforward, not least because of the violence and murder wrought upon the country by the Pakistani Taliban. They have tried to derail the election, attacking and killing candidates from the Awami National Party, the Muttahida Quami Movement, and the Pakistan People’s Party, whom they accuse of having secular views.

There is anger that this has allowed an easier campaign trail for the Pakistan Muslim League and Jamaat-e-Islami party, who it appears have not been targeted in this way.

There is also Pervez Musharraf, former military ruler, returned from self-imposed exile, who has been disqualified from standing in the polls by the judiciary, facing legal charges for abuse of power relating to his previous term as president.

Democratic process

Pakistani politics is a difficult and often corrupt business that leaves plenty to be desired. You see a symbol of these faults as soon as you arrive at Karachi or Lahore airport, with the separate VIP arrival desks reserved for “parliamentarians”.

But this election is a hugely important landmark for democracy in Pakistan, despite all the failures of governance. It is progress. Most civil society and human rights activists agree that the country is going through a process of “bad democracy to get to good democracy”. In this process, democratic institutions and the state’s capacity to look after people can progress with further investment in education, health and infrastructure.

Pakistani politics is a difficult, often corrupt business that leaves plenty to be desired.

The fact is that this election is up for grabs, there is a vociferous debate about who should run the country, and the Taliban’s murderers are opposed to it. That is why these elections are good for Pakistan.

That said, the fate of the millions of poor, hungry and dispossessed should not just be left in the hands of politicians, feudal leaders, generals and those who have historically let them down. The best we can hope for is a stable transition of power that does not hinder the work of the civil society, welfare, and education and human rights organisations.

They, after all, are the groups who will do the most to rebuild the country in the months ahead.

Anwar Akhtar is part of Pakistan Calling, a film programme that depicts Pakistani civil society organisations, social entrepreneurs and individuals who are attempting to tackle the country’s pressing social problems