Republican Wisconsin governor survives recall
The Republican governor of the US state of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, fights off an attempt to vote him out of office, in what is seen as a key test ahead of November’s presidential election.
You can almost feel the Republicans sighing with relief: after the conservative Governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, managed to defeat an effort to recall him from office – describing his win as “a tremendous victory for Wisconsin taxpayers”.
His challenger, Democratic mayor of Milwaukee Tom Barrett, who lost to Walker by a similar margin in 2010, had to concede defeat again, after a race where he had never managed to seize an advantage in the polls. “The state remains divided”, he warned, “those who are victorious tonight…should at the end of the day do what is right for Wisconsin families.”
Tuesday’s vote was only the third time in history that a sitting governor had faced a recall attempt half way through his term, and Walker became the first to survive: many voters felt that such an extreme option should be reserved for someone involved in serious misconduct, rather than an ideological disagreement over politics.
Across the state, turnout was extremely high, as both sides worked flat out to get their supporters to the polls – a crucial strategy in a campaign where scarcely any voters were undecided. This was not a race, it seems, where many left their decision until the last moment, although that didn‘t stop the campaigns funding wall-to-wall political advertisements in a desperate attempt to win over the handful of swing voters yet to make up their minds.
Inevitably, pundits have begun hailing the result as a harbinger for November, a boost for Mitt Romney in his battle to unseat Barack Obama from the White House.
‘Results will echo’
Romney himself was keen to draw that comparison, claiming that after Walker’s efforts to turn his state’s economy around, ” I believe that in November voters across the country will demonstrate that they want the same in Washington, D.C. Tonight’s results will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin,” he said.
A close look at the figures, though, reveals that it’s not all doom and gloom for the Democrats: despite their failure to win this particular race, more than half of those who voted say they would actually support Obama in the fall: just over 51% of them, compared with just 45% who said they’d back Mitt Romney.
Which all goes to show that this particular contest was far more complicated than a mere straight party fight.
In fact, Walker’s opponents began their campaign to remove him more than a year ago, enraged by a heady mix of Tea Party style austerity cuts combined with union bashing and conservative social policies: at one point, protestors occupied the state Capitol, marched in the streets and galvanised thousands of grassroots activists to defend their rights.
Undeterred, Walker pioneered deep cuts in spending, slashing pensions and pay for public sector workers and stripping collective bargaining rights from their trade unions.
Tax breaks
As the cuts began to bite, the Republican-dominated state legislature brought in tax breaks for businesses, while cutting social security benefits: this, they said, was the only way to encourage the private sector to kick start the economic recovery and begin creating jobs.
Amid the backlash, almost a million people signed a petition demanding his recall.
But while the liberals had anger on their side, Walker’s conservative supporters had serious money, bringing in tens of millions of dollars from outside the state, and big-name endorsements from fellow GOP governors Nikki Hayley, Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal.
It helped the Republicans to outspend their Democratic rivals by a factor of eight to one: the election was so closely fought, that more than $60m was poured into the race – the vast majority of it by the Republicans and their supporters.
Walker managed to get round rules capping the amount he could raise from supporters by raking in tens of millions of dollars from outside the state. Key donors included Sheldon Adelson, the casino mogul who bankrolled Newt Gingrich through the primaries, and Rick Santorum’s erstwhile money-man, Foster Friess.
Play the underdog
Tom Barrett, who had just $4 million in hand, could only attempt to play the underdog, telling supporters in the final stretch: “Here we are, it’s the last 28 hours and it’s like a heavyweight boxing match. In this corner, we’ve got Scott Walker, with his millions of millions of out of state dollars. And in this corner, we’ve got Tom Barrett and he’s got you.” It wasn’t enough.
In 2008 Obama carried Wisconsin by a healthy margin: it is a state the Democrats need to win again this year to be sure of holding on to the White House.
Yet earlier this week, Obama’s campaign team designated the Badger State a toss-up.
The money and resources which the Republicans poured in is bound to stand them in good stead in November, even if Romney doesn’t have the same level of popularity as Walker managed to achieve.
Tellingly, Obama himself didn’t turn up to campaign on Tom Barrett’s behalf: instead he sent a Twitter message the day before the poll, signed ‘bo’ to show it was personal, saying Barrett would “make an outstanding governor”.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement, according to RNC chair Reince Priebus, who quipped back: “Bold tweet from the President who wouldn’t actually campaign with him or step [sic] foot in Wisconsin”.
‘No Mitt Romney’
In the end, though, this was not Barack Obama’s election, and Scott Walker was no Mitt Romney. But one lesson will be echoing around the deserted campaign rooms tonight, as their exhausted teams begin gearing back up for the next battle to come.
And it is this: money works. Spending serious cash – or rather, spending way more serious cash than your rival, brings results.
That was the pattern of the Republican primaries, as the financial juggernaut of the Romney campaign eventually flattened everything in its path: that has been the pattern in Wisconsin.
It’s a depressing message, but an enduring one: if you raise it, they will come.