RFK Jr has ‘cut’ Kamala Harris’ momentum from DNC, says politics professor

We spoke to Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, and director of the Center for Politics ‘Crystal Ball’ election predictor website. He also won an Emmy for a documentary about the Kennedys.

We asked him what difference RFK junior’s pivot towards Trump will make to the campaign.

Larry Sabato: It’s already had one practical effect. It cut Kamala Harris off, right after the end of her convention. Normally, the nominee gets a couple of days, sometimes a week, to continue whatever momentum they’ve generated at the convention. To be honest, I think that’s the major effect he will have. He doesn’t have votes to transfer. That’s what people are not focusing on. He has been dropping like a rock ever since Kamala Harris entered the race. The reason for his being was that we had a choice, we Americans had a choice, between two unpopular old white guys. One network poll here, a CBS poll, had Kennedy just a few days ago at two per cent. You’re not going to transfer votes at that level. Most of them vote for the couch. That is, they don’t vote.

Ciaran Jenkins: In an election that could be decided by just a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states. Could that not be important?

Larry Sabato: Yes, and I think we might also be hit by an asteroid that our scientists have not been able to see in advance. Everything’s possible. This could be another 2,000, another Bush-Gore race, decided by 537 votes in one state, Florida. It’s always possible that will happen. It’s happened once in American history. So, is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Ciaran Jenkins: Which campaign do you think will be happier tonight, the Trump campaign or the Harris campaign now that RFK Jr is going over to Trump?

Larry Sabato: The odd thing is they’re both happy. And maybe we need more events like that. The Democrats think that this is another layer of ‘weird’ on top of Trump and JD Vance, the vice presidential candidate, because they both have weird aspects. The Republicans believe that, at least in a few of the seven states that are actually competitive, 43 states are off the board, they’re not even vaguely competitive. But two or three of those states, maybe if it’s within a few thousand votes, somehow RFK Jr will be able to transfer enough for Trump to win them.

Ciaran Jenkins: There’s a lot of disillusionment in American politics and amongst American voters, isn’t there as well, and RFK Jr spoke to some of those people. What do you think they will be thinking if their guy who was calling Trump ‘unhinged’ has now hinged himself to Trump?

Larry Sabato: That’s a very good point. I think they will conclude, correctly, that this is a very unusual guy who, like most politicians, is hypocritical and can switch on a dime. His family’s serious with him. They all have endorsed Harris just as they endorsed Biden. The Kennedys were a 60s phenomenon.

Ciaran Jenkins: We’ve now had both conventions, Democrats and the Republicans. So it’s a good time to reassess where we are at. How do you see this race right now?

Larry Sabato: Right now, Kamala Harris is a point or two ahead. Well, she ought to be. She’s had a very happy month. Trump’s problem, as always, is he’s stale.

Ciaran Jenkins: And you do a lot of crystal ball gazing in your profession. So looking into your crystal ball, how do you see this shaping up in November? Who’s going to win?

Larry Sabato: I would say, if you’re looking at them right now, if the election were held today, I think Harris would manage to eke it out, but not by very much. Trump has a history of coming back when it really matters. 90 per cent of the time he’s completely undisciplined. He will say and do anything, and his own campaign managers are screaming behind the stage because he doesn’t follow directions. But when it really matters, he does. And that might make the difference in the end.