Rick’s roll throws Republican race wide open
No-one saw THIS coming: Rick Santorum swept to a triple victory in last night’s Republican presidential contests – in an embarassing setback for Mitt Romney.
Just when it seemed there couldn’t possibly be another twist to the Republican race – hello, Rick Santorum. The former Pennsylvania Senator has suddenly breathed new life into his campaign, with a trio of victories in America’s heartland – victories that took everyone by surprise. “A trifecta! Thanks Colorado!” he tweeted last night.
Triple whammy
In his best night since the Iowa caucuses last month, Santorum trounced the favourite Mitt Romney by 30 percentage points in Missouri, and emerged five points ahead in Colorado, where Romney had been heavily expected to win. Santorum also won Minnesota with 45% of the vote, pushing Romney into a distant third behind the maverick Ron Paul.
I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama. Rick Santorum
A jubilant Santorum called it a victory for the conservative cause, and a turning point in the entire race, telling supporters at his victory rally in St Charles, Missouri: “I don’t stand here to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama.”
Team Romney were busy playing down the significance of the entire night, pointing out that no actual delegates were at stake. In a briefing, his political director Rich Beeson claimed: “It is difficult to see what Governor Romney’s opponents can do to change the dynamics of the race.”
It’s the momentum, stupid
Baldly speaking, that’s true: in terms of pure numbers, nothing has actually changed. But in a race where there’s been more ups and downs than a cable car ride through the Rocky Mountains, it’s now Santorum who’s captured that precious momentum and Romney struggling to reach out to his party’s conservative grassroots. As for Newt Gingrich, who came nowhere and wasn’t even on the Missouri ballot, who he? With no sign of more funding from his millionaire backer – it’s hard to see how he can clamber back into the fray.
So how did Rick manage his clean sweep? It’s true he’d been campaigning hard in all three states – despite his vast lack of money and organisation compared to the formidable Mitt machine. Romney failed spectacularly to capitalise on the momentum he’d got going for him after his Florida win – and showed, yet again, that activists just can’t get that enthusiastic about him. By contrast, Santorum painted himself as a more reliable conservative, more likeable, more multi-dimensional.
We’ve got a long way to go. Mitt Romney
Santorum’s own brand of politics was also helped considerably by a handy congruence of events which rallied conservatives and evangelicals to his side. Proposition 8 – the ban on gay marriage – was struck down in California. The fuss over a major breast cancer charity, the Susan G Komen foundation, and its donations to the pro-choice organisation Planned Parenthood has become something of a cause celebre among right wingers opposed to abortion. So too Obama’s attempt to require religious hospitals to offer birth control under his new healthcare plan.
They’re just not that into him
Romney’s spin doctors have been busy claiming that Tuesday’s contests don’t matter: the candidate himself telling a Colorado victory-rally-that-wasn’t: “We’ve got a long way to go”. But voters simply aren’t getting the message. Paul Begala, in the Daily Beast, called the results “a stunning repudiation of the ostensible front runner.” While that may be stretching it slightly, it still raises plenty of questions about the former Governor’s ability to win over hearts as well as minds. What’s clear is that Romney will be piling plenty of resources into the next three weeks, in Arizona with it’s substantial Mormon population, and Michigan, where he was brought up.
Money machine
All things being equal, he should have a pretty easy ride. Except he was widely expected to coast home in Colorado: emerging instead with half the votes he won there four years ago. Time for his massive financial muscle to impose its stamp. Santorum’s prospects are just as unpredictable: now he’s got to make it as far as Super Tuesday, when a host of important states hold their primaries on March 6th – and yes, these are ones with actual delegates with the power to vote for an eventual nominee. All of that depends not just on his message – but his finances, and the ability of his campaign to stay focussed and disciplined.
Today Santorum told CNN his team had raised $250,000 online last night, and he’s now positioning himself as the man best placed to challenge Obama in the fall. A knock, rather than a knock-out for Romney, perhaps, but a sure sign that the Republican race isn’t going to be a done deal, any time soon.