Romney back in the race – again

“We didn’t win by a lot, but we won by enough, and that’s all that counts”, Mitt Romney told supporters in Michigan last night, after avoiding a humiliating defeat in the state where he was brought up. It was a fairly narrow win – around 41per cent to 38 per cent, and Romney and his supporters did outspend Rick Santorum by almost two to one. But still a win, and in Arizona the margin was far more convincing. Whatever the final tally, it has averted all manner of trauma for his campaign, which can now carry on to the next challenge – that clutch of crucial primaries on Super Tuesday (6 March).

Rick Santorum’s momentum, such as it was, has been pretty comprehensively stopped in its tracks: despite his pitch to conservative, blue collar workers – even Democrats, of which more later, his lack of staff and organisation on the ground proved critical. He failed to shine in debates, and managed to damage his chances all by himself.

We didn’t win by a lot, but we won by enough. Mitt Romney

Aside from all the fuss about birth control, largely prompted by his own supporters, Santorum volunteered that he wanted to ‘throw up’ after hearing JFK’s speech on the separation of church and state. Then he called Obama a ‘snob’ for promoting college education. Yes, this from a man with two advanced degrees, an MBA and a law degree. Whatever the reason, suburban voters, the kind who actually win elections, didn’t flock to Santorum’s side: he didn’t even manage to win the Catholic vote.

Cash concerns

This could be because it was the economy, rather than social issues, which were voters’ top concern – more than half of them said it was their most important issue, while one in three Michigan voters say someone in their household had lost a job in the last three years. It’s a testament to the weakness of Santorum’s campaign that even Romney, managed to poll better here despite recent gaffes such as ‘to hell with the car industry bailout’, followed up with ‘my wife drives two Cadillacs’ and ‘some of my best friends own Nascar teams’.

As for the much buzzed about effort to get Democrats to back Santorum in Michigan’s open primary, which wasn’t restricted to Republican supporters – the unlikely alliance of liberals and ultra conservatives to sabotage Romney’s chances flopped. Romney kicked up a big fuss about some automated calls from the Santorum team, urging Democrats to oppose him, although Santorum himself was unrepentant: “If I appeal as a conservative to conservative Democrats, that’s kidnapping the process?”

Fun in Michigan?

Let’s not forget, courtesy of Buzzfeed, that back in 2008, the liberal Daily Kos blog was urging Democrats to back none other than Mitt Romney in the Michigan GOP primary, to prolong the contest and keep the race competitive against John McCain. “If Romney loses Michigan, he’s out. If he wins, he stays in”, they proclaimed, under the banner headline, ‘Let’s have some fun in Michigan’. It may not have been the liberals who swung it then either, but Romney did manage to take the state, if not the ultimate prize.

So now, as the delegate count inches upward and the threshold looms closer, is the Republican race of 2012 over in all but name? Not yet. There is something still wrong with this picture. Look at the typical Romney voter, and it’s a familiar list. Older, more affluent, college educated, even, yes, Catholic. There’s been no huge breakthrough with large parts of the GOP base, even though Romney did manage to poll slightly better than Santorum among Tea Party supporters.

They’re just not that into him

Fundamentally, it’s still this. The Republicans just aren’t into him. He’s a rich guy who can’t relate, and whose political positions, when he decides what they are, often don’t chime with the increasingly conservative mainstream view. Here’s Sarah Palin, in the New York Times, on the sheer lack of energy and enthusiasm behind the Romney campaign: “the fact that he’s had such a fight in his home state is evidence of that blessing not yet being given to him across the board.”

But the alternatives are even more flaky. Santorum lost a huge opportunity last night to show he could be that inspiring, respected figure that everyone’s been searching for. Gingrich, for all his determination to carry his fight on in Georgia, backed by another hefty cheque from casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson, was never that guy. Super Tuesday, with those evangelical-leaning southern states and blue collar Ohio, won’t be a cake-walk for Romney. But at the moment, he looks like he might just stagger across the finish line by default.

Felicity Spector writes about US politics for Channel 4 News