Russia and China veto sanctions on Syria

The Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned Russia’s and China’s actions, warning they could lead to further bloodshed “and the likelihood of a descent into all-out civil war”. But as violence in Syria continues, the diplomatic wrangles look as though they could be overtaken by events.

Economic restrictions are beginning to tighten around the country and key regime members have either defected or been killed. An increasing number of experts believes the uprising in Syria may be nearing its end.

A number of factors have combined to push what seemed to be an intractable situation into one which may yet see the brutal Assad government deposed. Channel 4 News understands that using EU financial sanctions, the UK Treasury has recently frozen £100m of Syrian assets.

Within the past year, 129 individuals and 49 companies or government bodies have been proscribed by the EU, up from a total of 13 in May 2011.

Curtailing Syria’s global financial movements via EU channels has been a weaker measure than it would have been via sanctions imposed by the UN. However the international community has found other means to work around the impasse at the UN caused by Russian hostility to sanctions.

For example, bodies such as the Arab League, with whom Syria conducts an estimated 50 per cent of its trade, have also imposed similar restrictions. In November 2011 the League began freezing assets and banning transactions with Syria’s central bank.

The US has also applied its own sanctions for a decade.

Alawite heartland

The volatile situation in Syria means it is not possible to confirm the whereabouts of President Assad or members of his regime. President Assad appeared on state television for the first time since a bomb attack killed three of his closest associates, to install his new defence minister General Fahad Jassim al-Freij. But as the images were taken indoors, it was not possible to say where they were filmed.

However Syrian experts such as Shashank Joshi, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think it would be a reasonable assumption that if Assad had left Damascus, he would seek refuge in the western coastal city of Latakia as has been reported by the Reuters new agency, quoting an unnamed western diplomat.

He told Channel 4 News: “Latakia is in the Alawite heartland, it was the capital of the former Alawite state so it’s not surprising that he’s gone there, if he has actually fled.”

But Mr Joshi does not think the time has come for Assad to call for help from his remaining allies: “At the moment, the Syrian regime does not really need the support of Iran and Russia. Russia though has to be concerned about the way the disorderly change of government – it has around 30,000 nationals in the country which it has to consider.”

Russia and Syria’s ties that bind
Beside its base in Tartus, Russia has other historic links to Syria. There are an estimated 30,000 Russian citizens living there as well as descendents of refugees who escaped oppression in Tsarist Russia. The 50-100,000 circassian residents come from Russian territory around the Caucasus and Black Sea region and support the Assad regime. There are fears this group may emigrate to Russia should Assad’s government fall which may cause instability in one of Russia’s most restive regions.

The whereabouts of Assad’s British-born wife Asma are also unknown though there have been rumours she has escaped to Russia.

Earlier this year, the EU announced she would be subject to travel restrictions though the government says that as she is a UK citizen she would not be refused entry to Britain if she were to return. Bashar Assad’s mother and sister are also subject to financial and travel constraints under European Union rules.

“It’s absolutely finished”

Conflict observers say the 15-month long bloody situation looks to be entering the final stages. RUSI’s Shashank Joshi thinks the government may fall within a matter of months. Lord Risby, a director of the British Syrian Society agreed. He told Channel 4 News: “It’s finished, it’s absolutely finished. My contacts there tell me kidnapping is out of control and there’s a complete breakdown of law and order.”

He was particularly criticial of Russia’s role in the crisis, adding that the former superpower, which still has a small base in Syria, could have brought the situation to an end earlier.

He said: “The Russians have misplaced their policy, they have lost Syria in the worst possible way. If they had backed UN action, we could have just potentially avoided all of this bloodshed.

“According to a former special adviser to President Assad who knows him well, if President Putin had asked Assad to go, he would have gone by now.”