Russia and Ukraine heading towards ‘escalation rather than solution’ says Nina Khrushcheva

We were joined from Moscow by Nina Khrushcheva – a professor of international relations based in New York. She’s the granddaughter of the former Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev.

Matt Frei: Do you think that this incursion by Ukraine has shattered the aura of invincibility around Vladimir Putin, inside Russia?

Nina Khrushcheva: Not necessarily. First of all, Putin doesn’t have an aura of invincibility. Most people do not support the war. A lot of people, not most people, but a lot of people do not support the war. And in fact, in the border region, they’ve been waiting for that. I think early on in the war, they kept saying, well, when is it going to be a problem for us and Belgorod region, the one that just began to be evacuated, there have been drone attacks. They’ve been for months and months and months.

So it is kind of the price of war and that’s what Putin has been saying. It is a special military operation but we should be prepared for all the unexpected. And the narrative is tightly controlled, but also people who are fleeing, now presenting the narrative is that, we are right to fight against Ukraine because they’re coming to our territory and killing us there. So I wouldn’t really call that the end of Putin as of yet.

Matt Frei: I don’t think anyone’s really suggesting that, but people are saying it’s a low point for him. What you seem to be saying is that actually, he can gain some political advantage out of it.

Nina Khrushcheva: Yes, I do say that. And I actually find this very remarkable quality of Putin, that he has a completely weak hand. He does play strong out of weak hand, he plays a really strong game. And for now when the enemy, as they call it, the enemy with Western tanks and the Western weapons are coming into the Russian territory, even if the people may think, well, it is a problem of the war, it’s also not Putin who attacks them if people from the other side, and in this sense, they’ve been quite a unifying moment, at least on the border. And for the rest of Russia for now, it’s still too far away to feel that they have to go against Putin.

Matt Frei: He’s always portrayed this war as a proxy war against NATO, against the West, supplying all these weapons. We know the Western allies have been very reluctant for the Ukrainians to push too far in the other direction. And of course, they were not told about this operation by President Zelenskyy. I mean, are we getting to a point where this could escalate further as a result of what’s going on here. In those two regions?

Nina Khrushcheva: Yes, it could be more escalation. And it is the Western weapons are going in and we also heard it now for the last few days, we’ve been hearing from Belorussia that they’ve been Western weapons or Western drones, shooting into the Belarussian territory. So Belorussia may be gearing in. It maybe finally can become a moment. I don’t want to predict it. I don’t want it to happen. But it could become a moment when the confrontation between the West and Belorussia and Russia would become inevitable. So it is possibly an escalation.

And it does seem that Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to strengthen his hand, or doesn’t want to negotiate on the points that Putin proposed. And Putin today said, we are not going to negotiate with Zelenskyy because he’s killing our people. So in this sense, it is possible that we’re getting towards the escalation rather than a solution or some sort of negotiation that both Putin and Zelenskyy were talking about only a month ago.

Matt Frei: And talking of escalation, the US State Department today issued a very strong statement saying, it is accusing the Iranians of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia and saying if that were to go ahead, hundreds of ballistic missiles, which Russia could then use against Ukraine, that, according to the US State Department, would be a dramatic escalation.

Nina Khrushcheva: Yes, it possibly could. But we already see the escalation with Iran altogether. So on many fronts we’re seeing that potentially there is an escalation. We also heard today from Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he’s asking France and I think Great Britain to allow their weapons to be shot further down, further into the Russian territories. So we are seeming to be getting towards escalation on all sides. And I think then we haven’t even discussed the North Korean weapons that are being supplied to Russia and whatnot, that all of this can become part of the furthering of the war and even calling it the war because so, so far, Putin has been reluctant, we even calling for, proper mobilisation on the Russian side.

Matt Frei: The picture you paint then is pretty alarming?

Nina Khrushcheva: It is pretty alarming. I mean, it’s not pretty alarming. It’s very alarming. Zelenskyy really took this gamble. And even in Ukraine you’re hearing very, in fact very openly, there have been conversations that Russia may go absolutely crazy about it and there will be retaliation. We actually just now, we just heard, explosion in Kharkiv. So absolutely, it is a very alarming picture. It’s not just Putin or Russia that is being alarmed. I think all sides are being alarmed about this.