Sliding polls: can Obama turn his fortunes around?
He was the man who inspired millions with his promise of change. So what’s happened to make Barack Obama quite so unpopular – and how can he turn things around, asks Felicity Spector.
President Obama is not in a good place. The man who promised to change Washington – indeed, to change politics for good – has become trapped by a gridlocked Congress, drifting on a sea of partisan acrimony. Gone is the rhetoric of compromise, of reaching out to moderate Republicans: now Obama, who was always happiest on the campaign trail, has rediscovered his liberal zeal.
Falling ratings
All of which could just be too late to rescue his presidency, if the latest poll ratings are to be believed. Quinnipac University’s polling unit shows American voters disapprove 55 – 41 percent of the job that Obama is doing, an all- time low. And that disapproval rating has gone up a steep nine points over the summer, amid widespread concern among voters over the state of the economy, and the President’s ability to turn things around.
For Obama, that’s more than alarming. That’s an air-raid siren at dawn. Jason Stanford
According to Quinnipac’s Peter Brown: “The president is stuck at a politically unhealthy level for someone who wants to be re-elected.”
Black voters disappointed
Look deeper, and there are some more worrying trends for Obama’s team. On Politico, the Democratic consultant Jason Stanford reports that focus groups of black voters, like the population as a whole, are unhappy with the direction the country is going.
But they are not so much angry, as disappointed in the president’s seeming inability to make the system work. “Only five months ago, 83 per cent of black voters said they strongly favored Obama. Recently that number fell to 58 per cent. For Obama, that is more than alarming. That’s an air-raid siren at dawn,” he writes.
Re-election hopes
It’s crucial, because Obama’s re-election hopes are heavily dependent on the black vote. His support among white independent voters has slumped so far, he needs an even bigger turnout among black voters than he got in 2008.
His campaign team have just launched a new drive called “Operation Vote” to win the support of ethnic minorities, and Obama made a direct appeal last week to the Congressional Black Caucus to rally behind him: “Shake it off. Stop complaining, stop grumbling, stop crying. We are going to press on, We’ve got work to do.”
Winning coalition
The strategy for 2012, then, is to reinvigorate the base – and try to rebuild that winning coalition which swept Obama to victory in ’08. Not such an easy prospect: as Michael Barone points out, that 53 per cent of the popular vote he won three years ago was higher than any other Democratic presidential nominee since Andrew Jackson.
Stop grumbling, stop crying. We’ve got work to do. Barack Obama
And the demographics do not help, with so many of those core groups, from young voters to blue collar workers now openly frustrated and disillusioned.
Look at any of the key battleground states, from Ohio to Pennsylvania, and find a majority of voters disapprove of Obama’s performance. The challenge for the White House is how to win back one or more of those target groups, without alienating the rest.
It’s the economy
In the end, whatever the rhetoric about taxes on millionaires and “do-nothing” Republicans – the election is most likely to hinge on one thing. Obama’s former chief of staff Rahm Emanuel set it out pretty clearly yesterday: “There is no doubt there is a challenge politically, because the economy is not where the American middle class needs it to be for their bottom line.”
Yes, it’s the economy – and whether Obama is the right president to lead America out of the mess. And right now, he’s got everything to prove.
Felicity Spector writes on US politics. Follow her on Twitter @felicityspector