Stories behind the numbers
I blame journalists. If we didn’t demand numbers, governments wouldn’t have to make them up.
How many people have been displaced by the fighting in Pakistan? According to the government, 2,882,642.
That’s a lot of displaced people. According to the 1998 census, the population of Swat was 1,257,602, and Buner 506,048. Pakistan’s growth rate is estimated to be 1.999 per cent.
My maths isn’t good enough to work out the likely population now – any reader who can, please feel free – but I fear we’re suffering from refugee inflation. I believe that the displaced people are suffering, I believe that the country is struggling to cope, but I don’t believe that there are nearly 3 million of them.
Refugee inflation has a number of causes. First, I’m told that people from the Swat Valley are registering twice or even three times over as they move from place to place, in the hope of receiving food and other supplies. Many fled without their ID cards, so the government is desperately trying to reissue them to sort out the muddle.
Then, in many such situations, there is a desire on the part of those who do the counting to think of a number and double it. This isn’t necessarily for dishonest purposes, but more because appealing for international aid is like bargaining in the bazaar, so if you ask for $100m, maybe you’ll get half that. Not so much crying wolf, but claiming that dozens of packs of wolves are descending when one would be bad enough.
And then there’s inflation which is like WRITING IN CAPITALS SO EVERYONE GETS THE POINT. Hence headlines like “BIGGEST REFUGEE CRISIS SINCE PARTITION” or SINCE RWANDA IN 1994 or since whichever mega-tragedy strikes a chord with your audience.
Interestingly, in Pakistan I think we may have deflation too. The government says that 26 people were killed and about 300 injured in the Lahore bombing last week. Yet the US Embassy, in a warning to its citizens in Pakistan, says about 60 people were killed and 600 injured.
I saw the bombsite, and – given the time of the day it happened, and the extent of destruction – I’d be amazed if only 26 died. But I think the Pakistani government fears spreading what we used to call “alarm and despondency” so is playing it down.
What’s a journalist to do? I say treat all numbers with scepticism. And remember that every individual displaced or killed is a story in their own right, and in the end that’s what matters.
