The government is prepared to take military action in Syria if it can win a majority in the Commons, but with the Labour leadership frontrunner and SNP sceptical, victory is not assured.
When David Cameron last sought parliamentary approval for British air strikes in Syria in 2013, Labour was opposed, he lost the vote and had to leave the bombing to the Americans.
Now, with the revelation that the RAF killed two British jihadis in a drone strike in Syria, there is the prospect of another vote – with Islamic State the target this time, rather than the Assad regime.
The government has a 12-seat majority and cannot count on the support of every Conservative MP, let alone Labour and the SNP, which have 288 MPs between them.
Jeremy Corbyn, the frontrunner to be elected Labour’s new leader at the weekend, has been consistently sceptical about joining the bombing.
He and the other candidates, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall, were asked if they they would suport military action on the Channel 4 News leadership hustings programme on 1 Sept (watch video above). None was enthusiastic, but Mr Corbyn was the most doubtful.
He said: “If we start bombing, you’re going to kill people. If it doesn’t work, you’re going to send in ground troops. If you send in ground troops, who are you in alliance with when you’re sending those ground troops in?
“It’s not a two-way civil war. I think it’s at least a four-way civil war. I don’t see how you could make it any better because you end up with destruction, of course, you end up with civilian deaths, of course.”
With Chilcot in mind, Mr Burnham said Labour had to learn the lessons of Iraq, adding: “The legality of any action is a major question, particularly when…the Syrian government isn’t making an invitation, isn’t asking for our support. You have to answer that question in terms of the legality.”
This was an issue he had raised in an interview with the Huffington Post on 9 Aug, when he said he was “struggling” with the legality of air strikes. He went on to say that he would not “rule out” backing military action, but warned the government that “if they try and bounce the opposition into this they are not treating the country with respect”.
What is the government's rationale for air strikes in Syria?
Britain is taking part in the coalition bombing campaign against Islamic State in Iraq, with the backing of the Iraqi government. David Cameron would like to take similiar acton in Syria, which is governed by a regime the government would like to see gone.
The problem is he does not have have parliamentary approval to do so. Defence Secretary Michael Fallon told the BBC Today programme on Tuesday: "At some point I think the new parliament will have to rethink the absurdity of us being able to strike against Isil in Iraq, but not being able to strike Isil’s command and control centres in Syria."
Mr Fallon said the government wanted to be able to take action in Syria, "but to get parliamentary approval we'd have to be absolutely sure that we'd win the vote and establish a sufficient majority for it". Referring to the 2013 Commons vote on military action in Syria, he said: "The circumstances have moved on. That was a motion about tackling Assad. The issue now is whether or not we're prepared to deal with Isil."
Ms Cooper told Channel 4 News said there were “some very big questions” that needed to be answered before any British intervention.
“In Syria, the questions are, what are the actual objectives?, who are the ground troops?, what are you trying to achieve? There’s also a question of making sure that any proposal is legal, any proposal is proportionate, and has clear objectives.”
While she would “look very seriously” at proposals for air strikes, Ms Cooper said “we can’t speculate until the prime minister has answered those questions”.
Ms Kendall warned that it would be a “bad mistake” to assume that “bombing Syria alone will be the solution to the problems we face there”.
She added: “Without doubt, there would have to be a clear rationale for what UK troops would contribute over and above what the US is already doing there, and it would have to be part of a wider strategy in the region.”
After Mr Cameron’s announcement yesterday that drone strikes had been carried out, the SNP’s defence spokesperson Brendan O’Hara said Mr Cameron had to “come clean about his plans”.
He added: “The case for bombing in Syria has simply not been made, and any involvement of British service personnel in bombing without the approval of parliament clearly flouts the democratic decision taken by the House of Commons.”
Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, is also sceptical, but prepared to listen to Mr Cameron’s arguments.
“I have scepticism about the efficacy of air strikes, but I’m willing to listen to the case the UK government puts forward,” she told the Murnaghan programme on Sky News on 6 Sept.