Behind the scenes, the diplomatic momentum on Syria is growing.
We are not just talking about the Arab League giving President Assad three days to halt the violence. I understand that senior American diplomats are travelling to Paris today to meet Syrian opposition figures, as well as a conclave of the British, French, Turks, Saudis and others.
Some are talking about Western-led “contact group” for Syria, a kind of diplomatic talking shop of the kind we saw for Libya. But the Russians won’t like it, and the British and others would much rather the Arab League took the lead, as it has so far.
Next steps might include the Arab League – rather than just the usual Western suspects – pushing for a new UN resolution at the Security Council. Yes, the Russians might veto it, but Syrian opposition leaders are hoping “financial incentives” from one or more Gulf States might bring the Russians round, with Beijing then following Moscow’s lead.
The opposition are counting on two factors to push President Assad from power. The first is economic collapse. Losses from tourism alone are running at $2 billion dollars a month. And the second factor is diplomatic pressure, not just from the Turks, Europeans and Arab states – but from the Americans.
“The superpower needs to send a message to the people around Bashar that he has no future,” one opposition leader told me. The risk of course, is that Syria’s Generals get that message, Bashar goes, and then another undemocratic figure from the ruling Alawite minority takes his place.
What we are not anywhere near is a moment of Western recognition for the “Syrian National Council” as the sole and official Opposition. They are not the equivalent of the Libyan “National Transitional Council” and for now can’t pretend to be, because they don’t run any part of Syria.
They say they have a coherent plan for transition – a transitional government, then a national conference on democracy, then parliamentary elections – but Western capitals want evidence of a united front. Some Syrian opposition figures in Damascus say they want to talk to the Assad regime. Those outside the country are more inclined to say that a “negotiated exit” is the only subject they are prepared to talk about.
As for the “Syrian Free Army” or FSA, well it is not anything like as well armed as it needs to be to topple Assad. One estimate puts the number of army defectors now up to 20,000. Whatever the truth, the number does seem to be growing, but the FSA still can’t legitimately call itself the Opposition’s armed wing. Though there was a meeting in southern Turkey last Thursday between senior army defectors and Opposition figures.
My gut feeling – and that is all this is – is that Assad will not survive mounting diplomatic and economic isolation. Whether Syria is a better place without him and how to handle the transition are questions Foreign Ministries from Washington to Beijing are no doubt desperately trying to figure out.