‘Syrians trying to figure out what tomorrow holds’, MENA expert

With Assad gone and the country in the hands of different groups of rebels, what now for the future of Syria?

We spoke to the Syrian Columnist and foreign policy expert Dr Haid Haid, he’s a consulting fellow at the think tank Chatham House in London.

We began by asking him if he thought Assad’s downfall was made possible by his allies being distracted with other wars.

Haid Haid: If you look at Russia’s position, it has moved most of its equipment as well as personnel away from Syria because of their war in Ukraine. And it was difficult for them to then allocate the resources needed for Assad to be able to stop opposition fighters. And I think for the Russians, it was sort of their calculation that ‘we have invested all this money and the regime has not been able to fight back. So why would we just go ahead and then repeat the same mistakes again?’ For Iran, it was a similar situation, especially since Hezbollah, its main arm, not only in the Middle East but in Syria, which contributed to the protection of the regime for years, is now completely destroyed in its own war with Israel.

Matt Frei: So what happens now? Because there are so many different rebel forces, from Kurdish separatists to Islamists of different levels of extremism that have converged on the big cities. Who’s going to actually run the place now?

Haid Haid: Syrians are celebrating today. I think many are trying to figure out what tomorrow holds. The problem right now is, as you mentioned, you have rebel groups, different ones, not only the ones who started the fight, but then you have local armed groups who then also started their own fights in order to liberate their areas from the regime. This is what complicates the situation. How will the political opposition that is now entering negotiations with different groups be able to establish not only contact, but influence over the groups that are controlling the territories on the ground, and who will be able to then determine who will have the biggest say in what the transitioning body would look like.

Matt Frei: Given the state of the Middle East at the moment, if Syria implodes or becomes chaotic or there’s another kind of civil war that results from this, what are the consequences going to be for the region?

Haid Haid: Big consequences. The most obvious one will be the new flow of refugees to neighbouring countries and potentially to Europe and elsewhere. Then you have the security element and you have clashes, maybe not only being contained to Syria, but involving other countries, groups even operating from Syria against other countries or carrying out attacks. Then you have the ISIS sort of threat. The group has been gaining sort of more resources, as well as carrying out more attacks in Syria and this would create a golden opportunity for the group to be able to just carry out attacks not only in Syria but elsewhere as well.

Matt Frei: Of course, power is changing, including in Washington. Mr Trump takes over at the end of January. Does he have any impact on this new reality in the Middle East?

Haid Haid: I think it does. The most obvious one is that most of the influential policy makers in the Biden administration, they have already moved on. They have secured other jobs or in the process of securing other jobs. So there is no one left to really look at what’s happening in Syria and then try to play the leadership role that the US has usually played.

Matt Frei: Finally, is Iran, one of the principal backers of the Assad regime, are they the biggest losers in this and what consequences will that have for them?

Haid Haid: I think it’s safe to say that Iran will be the biggest loser. It seems that Iran will not be able to secure any of its interests in Syria. If you look at what they have been trying to use Syria for over the past years is, one, to continue to supply Hezbollah with weapons, and no matter who basically rules Damascus, it will be difficult for them to allow that, mainly due to the role that Hezbollah has played in killing Syrians across the country for decades.