Leaked military report shows ‘US frustrated with Pakistan’

Dr Gareth Price, senior analyst at Chatham House, suggested that while there may be truth in the report’s claim that Pakistan is colluding with the Taliban in Afghanistan, the document is not in itself evidence of that assertion.

Instead, he suggested that the leaking of the report indicates frustration among elements of US forces with the deteriorating relationship between Pakistan and the US. The leak, he suggested, could be seen as an attempt to rebuke Pakistan through the back door for what is perceived to be a pro-extremist stance.

He told Channel 4 News: “If people in detention say, ‘yes, it’s all to do with Pakistan’ to Americans who want to know that it is all about Pakistan, that [report] does not prove it [that Pakistani authorities support the Taliban].

“If they were to say, ‘yes, it is Pakistan, and this is how it works, this is how much money is provided, this how we get weapons’, that’s different. This [report] is not something that’s new.

“There is a lot of anger towards Pakistan. They [the West] have tried lots of carrots, but this report is a stick to say, ‘we know what you’re up to’.”

State of the Taliban

The secret State of the Taliban report was leaked to The Times and to the BBC. Based on 27,000 interrogations of more than 4,000 Taliban and al-Quaida detainees, the report was given to Nato commanders last month.

It has raised fresh questions over Nato allies’ relationship with Pakistan, due to its damning criticism of their military intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).

The report said: “The government of Pakistan remains intimately involved with the Taliban. ISI is thoroughly aware of Taliban activities and the whereabouts of all senior Taliban personnel. Senior Taliban leaders meet regularly with ISI personnel, who advise on strategy and relay any pertinent concerns of the government of Pakistan.

“The government of Pakistan remains intimately involved with the Taliban.” Leaked ISAF report

“Pakistan’s ISI and foreign extremist elements increasingly appeared to manipulate the Taliban leadership. ISI officers tout the need for continued jihad [holy war] and expulsion of foreign invaders from Afghanistan.”

But, the report adds, “despite widespread open source reports to the contrary”, detainees do not reveal that Pakistan provides funding or weapons.

Regaining control

The report also highlights that the Taliban are poised to regain control in Afghanistan, in marked contrast public assertions by US and UK military top brass that the former Afghan rulers are virtually defeated.

Although Nato’s goal is to pull combat troops out of the country by the end of 2014, President Sarkozy of France shocked members last week when he announced plans to pull forces out of Afghanistan next year, calling on alliance members to follow suit by withdrawing troops earlier.

Nato has already begun handing over provinces and districts to Afghan security forces in preparation for the 2014 deadline, although expectations that the US will accelerate the departure of its 90,000 troops are growing.

David Cameron has already said that Britain will withdraw troops in 2014.

“Though the Taliban suffered severely in 2011, its strength, motivation, funding and tactical proficiency remains intact,” the report said. “Many Afghans are already bracing themselves for an eventual return of the Taliban.”

Fresh questions

In the UK, the leak has raised fresh questions over Britain’s relationship with Pakistan. More than £1bn of bilateral trade flows between the two countries annually. The UK is set to contribute £665 million in four years in development assistance, from 2009, and total spending, including on counter-terrorism and defence in Pakistan, came to £158.8 million in 2009 to 2010.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office has said that reducing the threat of extremism in Pakistan is a top foreign policy priority.

“The UK has its own reasons for its policy towards Pakistan because of the [Pakistani] diaspora here and history,” Dr Price said. “However on the big issues, on peace talks and on the future of Afghanistan, the Western relationship with Pakistan is dominated by the US. There are attempts to forge separate policies, but the leverage that the UK has is less than the US.”

“Though the Taliban suffered severely in 2011, its strength, motivation, funding and tactical proficiency remains in tact.” Leaked ISAF report.

But Dr Price added that while the UK has “for a long time” been aware of Pakistan’s supposed dalliances with extremist elements, “there is a widespread expectation that the West is going to leave Afghanistan, and Pakistan is positioning themselves for the aftermath. Pakistan doesn’t want India to have influence over Afghanistan, and if there is a war with India, they will need bases, and those bases will be in Afghanistan.”

‘Pakistan must cooperate’

Previously regarded as a key ally in the regional ‘war on terror’, recent events – such as last year’s killing of Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil in a secretive US operation without Pakistani involvement, and US drone strikes in Pakistani tribal regions – have seen the two nations’ relationship become increasingly fractured.

Just two months after coming into office, David Cameron was accused of committing a diplomatic faux-pas when he said of Pakistan during a trip to India: “We cannot tolerate in any sense the idea that this country is allowed to look both ways and is able, in any way, to promote the export of terror, whether to India or whether to Afghanistan or anywhere else in the world.”

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan said the report is a “compilation of Taliban detainee opinions and ideals”, and “should not be used as any interpretation of campaign progress”.

In a statement to Channel 4 News, an ISAF spokesman added: “ISAF has long said that Pakistan has to cooperate with Afghanistan and the international coalition in the war against terrorism and it is in everyone’s interest to work together.”

Nato report - an indictment of western policy in Afghanistan: read Alex Thomson's blog