John Sparks blogs from Bangkok on a remarkable comeback for the Shinawatras – the Thai family who are turning into a political dynasty.
“Pii chai – nong sao”. It means “older brother – younger sister” in Thai but a more accurate translation would go like this : “younger sisters respect their older brothers”.
This a problem for Thailand’s new Prime Minister-elect Yingluck Shinawatra. The photogenic 44-year-old property developer was a total unknown a few months ago. She is now about to take over the reins of a country with 64 million people.
She owes her sudden elevation in life to her big brother, Thaksin Shinawatra. He chose her to lead the latest version of his own party – called Puea Thai – a decision that was nothing short of a masterstroke.
Her good looks and easygoing nature went down a storm. She also benefits from the Shinawatra brand. Mr Thaksin was ousted in a coup in 2006 and lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai. But the rural poor in populous north-eastern Thailand still regard the elder Shinawatra as a hero with vote-catching policies like affordable health care and village development schemes.
Yet Thaksin Shinawatra is deeply unpopular among many Thais, like the better-educated urbanites and members of the establishment. His autocratic style was resented (honed no doubt as a lieutenant-colonel in the police force) and he was convicted on corruption charges. A Thai court found him guilty of abuse of power for personal gain – but he didn’t turn up to be sentenced.
Here lies young Yingluck’s dilemma. Mr Shinawatra wants to come home. Interviewed on television tonight he was sounding diplomatic: “I would tell my supporters that I really want to go back but I wait for the right moment and the right situation.” For many Thais there will never be a “right situation”.
To pave the way for his return, she would have to engineer an amnesty for her brother – a move that is guaranteed to anger her opponents. Her defeated rival and departing Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, said he’d fight that one tooth and nail. If the anti-Thaksin ‘yellow-shirts’ go back to the streets (like they’ve done on plenty of previous occasions) she will have a full-blown political crisis on her hands.
So what does she do? It goes right the heart of this crucial question – who will run the government? Little sis or her big bro in Dubai? Yingluck will have to make a decision and it is going to be a tough one – “pii chai – nong sao”.
Such is the burden of leadership.