The winners and losers of a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ vote on AV

Nick Clegg is fast developing the reputation of letting his mouth open while his brain is still on its annual holidays. Thus the man who revealed his 30 lovers to Piers Morgan and his tears to Jemima Khan is also in the frame for the bit of May madness which has the nation asleep with excitement, the referendum on the Alternative Vote.

May is traditionally the month when the voters exercise their rights and ignore local elections up and down the country. National boundaries are set aside as electors from all parts of the United Kingdom unite in apathy and choose a trip to the pub over a trip to the polling booth.

But thanks to Nick whatever residual guilt emerged from this annual ignoring of democracy can be doubled as you can now snub two chances to vote on the same day, May 5.

For the millions who have forgotten, if they ever remembered, the referendum on AV was part of the price Nick exhorted from the Tories for creating the Coalition.

What they really wanted was a referendum on proportional representation but Dave wasn’t that desperate and so Nick settled for what he has memorably called “a miserable little compromise.”

And it is with this electric call to arms that we find ourselves just three weeks away from a vote that could change for ever the way we choose those who spend our money.

It should in theory be easy to decide which side you are on in this debate even if you have no idea what its about , but nothing is as it seems.

For instance those who oppose AV include David Cameron ,William Hague ,the Lords Howe and Hurd not to mention the Daily Mail and the Sun, but clambering into the same bed are none other than Labour lords Prescott and Reid not to mention the GMB union and dozens of Labour MPs.

Which is a bit confusing since the leader of the Labour Party Ed Miliband backs AV, as does Charles Kennedy, who Ed does back, but also Nick Clegg who Ed of course does not back.

Check out the Channel 4 News Fact Check on AV - 'Milibands AV myth busting falls short

So how does the ordinary disaffected and disinterested voter for whom May 5 was until now merely in the diary for being a Thursday react?

An anonymous pundit once said “Don’t vote. It only encourages them.” But then again if you don’t you can’t complain and complaining is the most fun most of us get from the political process.

The best way to work out how to vote on May 5, say the cynics, is to decide to whom you want to give the biggest kicking. If there are local elections in your area then you get all the usual political suspects to have a go at plus an AV vote as an extra stick. If you don’t have local candidates to despise don’t worry because AV is there to give you a chance to express your own verdict on the present political scene.

Leaders – winners or losers, from a yes or a no?

First up in the frame is Prime Minister Dave, almost a year in office and yet still amazingly little touched by the trials and tribulations of office. His plans for the NHS may be in trouble, the economy faltering and the cuts even worse than first feared but Dave seems to have found out where Teflon Tony hid his magic cloak and has it firmly wrapped around his person.

Dave is playing a brilliant hand over AV even if he doesn’t know it.. He has to be against it to persuade his suspicious right wingers, not to mention his less than happy Fleet Street backers, that claims he enjoys coalition government are false.

The “no” campaign means he can travel the country politely denouncing Nick and distancing himself from the bit of the deal which has caused him most trouble so far.

Equally content is Ed, who despite criticism of his own less than impressive leadership style, has very cleverly managed his relationships with the Lib-Dems.

His support for AV neatly distances himself from the old beasts of Labour and the Gordon legacy as well as building bridges with those parts of the Lib-Dem party increasingly unhappy with being part of the Coalition.

This has meant that Ed can stick to his mantra of not dealing with Nick whilst happily working with those within the Lib Dems who hold their leader in similar contempt.

That just leaves us with Nick who has gone from hero to zero in just 12 short months. It is almost exactly a year since he popped up in the first of those televised leaders debates and seemed poised to lead a revolution.

Now he is being told that the best he can do over AV is to keep his head down and his mouth shut.

So who will be the winners and who the losers on May 5. Well when it comes to a “yes” to AV vote it seems that Ed and Nick and Dave all win.

Ed will win because he backed it and made new friends in the Lib-Dems . Nick will win because he can tell his party that thanks to the Coalition he has taken the first steps towards PR and he isn’t quite the electoral liability they think he is.

And ironically Dave will also win because keeping the Lib-Dems happy makes the Coalition easier to run and keeps at the bay his recidivist right-wingers whose ability to cause trouble is trumped by the votes of Nick’s MPs.

If there is a “no” vote Dave still wins because he believes Nick and his friends in Government will have nowhere to go and will have to stick even tighter to him thereby still nullifying his looney-tunes wing.

Ed won’t care desperately because he has made new mates in the Lib-Dems outside of the Government who will become important when the time is right and he will be celebrating mega success in the local elections.

And Nick has already said that if the vote is lost it is not be a deal-breaker for the Coalition , he’ll stay on as Deputy PM and it will be business as usual for the next four years.

So they win if they win and they win if they lose.

But if you don’t take part…